Sha Tin · 2020-02-16
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. TIME WARP, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with EXULTANT second and CITRON SPIRIT third. The winner led throughout. The 1.2 favourite EXULTANT finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | TIME WARP Wire to wire TT 2.02.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 8 | 26.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 9 | 1.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | CITRON SPIRIT Closed strongly H-/XB N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 1 | 58.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | DARK DREAM B/TT G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 6 | 36.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 3 | 27.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HO HO KHAN Closed strongly B- C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 7 | 53.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | FURORE Closed strongly B J Spencer · F C Lor | J Spencer | F C Lor | 10 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | DOCTOR GEOFF K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 5 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SOUTHERN LEGEND V- C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 4 | 19.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly XB A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 2 | 9.3 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 11 | 99.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 50.5% | 1.98 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 13.8% | 7.26 | 10 |
| 3 | 7 | TIME WARP | 11.4% | 8.80 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | DOCTOR GEOFF | 4.3% | 23.08 | 8 |
| 5 | 3 | FURORE | 4.2% | 23.77 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | DARK DREAM | 3.9% | 25.53 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 3.1% | 32.76 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | HO HO KHAN | 2.9% | 34.14 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | CITRON SPIRIT | 2.4% | 42.00 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 2.1% | 47.59 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | EAGLE WAY | 1.4% | 71.29 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 269.5
PLACE
1 10.1
4 76.5
7 52.5
QUINELLA
1,7 116
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 72.5
1,7 54
4,7 757
TIERCE
7,1,4 10,136
TRIO
1,4,7 1,050
FIRST 4
1,4,6,7 3,464
QUARTET
7,1,4,6 160,359
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 48
A3 —
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE
2/1 10.5
2/7 577.5
WINNING TRAINER
B1 12
B3 —
B4 —
B2 —