Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-02-16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PING HAI BRAVO, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with JUDY'S STAR second and JADE PHOENIX third. The 2.8 favourite JADE PHOENIX finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PING HAI BRAVO 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · J Size 5 3.0 1/2
2 9 JUDY'S STAR B- B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 10 17.0 1/2
3 5 JADE PHOENIX J Moreira · F C Lor 4 2.8 2-3/4
4 1 THE RUNNER B A Badel · D J Whyte 6 26.0 2-3/4
5 13 ALL TIMES GRATEFUL Z Purton · C H Yip 2 8.5 5-1/4
6 11 BABY STORM H/TT J Spencer · L Ho 13 64.0 5-3/4
7 3 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 11.0 6-1/4
8 14 VOYAGE STAR V-/B2/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 8 23.0 6-1/2
9 8 BRILLIANT H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 7 7.0 7
10 12 XIANG LAN QI M Chadwick · K L Man 12 292.0 8-1/4
11 7 RESOLUTE C Schofield · A T Millard 1 67.0 8-1/4
12 6 DOUBLE TAKE C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 176.0 8-1/4
13 2 BEST SMILE TT H W Lai · W Y So 11 120.0 16-1/4
14 10 SPARKLING LIFE B- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 3 334.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PING HAI BRAVO2. JUDY'S STAR+0.5L3. JADE PHOENIX+2.75L4. THE RUNNER+2.75L5. ALL TIMES GRATEFUL+5.25L6. BABY STORM+5.75L7. KA YING EXCELLENT+6.25L8. VOYAGE STAR+6.5L9. BRILLIANT+7L10. XIANG LAN QI+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (25.6%) finished 3rd — the winner PING HAI BRAVO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 JADE PHOENIX 25.6% 3.91 3
2 4 PING HAI BRAVO 20.1% 4.97 1
3 13 ALL TIMES GRATEFUL 10.4% 9.62 5
4 8 BRILLIANT 8.4% 11.85 9
5 3 KA YING EXCELLENT 7.9% 12.61 7
6 7 RESOLUTE 6.0% 16.81 11
7 6 DOUBLE TAKE 5.8% 17.22 12
8 9 JUDY'S STAR 5.3% 18.69 2
9 1 THE RUNNER 3.8% 26.21 4
10 2 BEST SMILE 2.5% 40.60 13
11 14 VOYAGE STAR 1.7% 59.52 8
12 11 BABY STORM 1.2% 82.18 6
13 12 XIANG LAN QI 0.8% 127.30 10
14 10 SPARKLING LIFE 0.5% 219.67 14
JADE PHOENIXPING HAI BRAVO — wonALL TIMES GRATEFULBRILLIANTKA YING EXCELLENTRESOLUTEDOUBLE TAKEJUDY'S STARTHE RUNNERBEST SMILEVOYAGE STARBABY STORMXIANG LAN QISPARKLING LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 30.5

PLACE

4 13

5 13

9 40

QUINELLA

4,9 219

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 20.5

4,9 77.5

5,9 86

TIERCE

4,9,5 1,415

TRIO

4,5,9 170

FIRST 4

1,4,5,9 705

QUARTET

4,9,5,1 16,077

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 133.5

2/9 108.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3