Sha Tin · 2020-02-16

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY ALUMNI, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with SIMPLY FLUKE second and INCANTO PREPARED third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.13

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT 1.10.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	1	129 lb	2.5	1-1/2
2	13	SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB A Badel · C H Yip	A Badel	C H Yip	14	117 lb	4.2	1-1/2
3	11	INCANTO PREPARED E/TT G van Niekerk · J Size	G van Niekerk	J Size	3	121 lb	10.0	3-1/4
4	8	SPARKLING STAR H-/TT1 T Piccone · W Y So	T Piccone	W Y So	8	125 lb	10.0	3-1/4
5	1	HARD PROMISE N Callan · T P Yung	N Callan	T P Yung	7	133 lb	34.0	4
6	3	MELBOURNE HALL XB J Moreira · D J Hall	J Moreira	D J Hall	4	127 lb	6.3	4-1/4
7	5	COMPASSION SPIRIT M L Yeung · K L Man	M L Yeung	K L Man	5	125 lb	10.0	4-1/4
8	10	SACRED TIMING B M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	9	122 lb	136.0	4-3/4
9	14	BLAZING PARTNERS SR H N Wong · D E Ferraris	H N Wong	D E Ferraris	10	112 lb	161.0	5-1/4
10	7	REGENCY MASTER TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	11	125 lb	40.0	5-3/4
11	6	EURO LAGO B B Shinn · C W Chang	B Shinn	C W Chang	2	125 lb	83.0	6
12	12	MIGHTY VALOR B H W Lai · P F Yiu	H W Lai	P F Yiu	6	119 lb	31.0	7-1/4
13	4	CENTENARY IBIS L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	13	125 lb	158.0	9-3/4
14	9	MR DARTHVEGAR H H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	12	119 lb	156.0	15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick HAPPY ALUMNI (24.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	HAPPY ALUMNI	24.9%	4.02	1	2.5
2	3	MELBOURNE HALL	17.5%	5.73	6	6.3
3	13	SIMPLY FLUKE	11.5%	8.71	2	4.2
4	8	SPARKLING STAR	10.6%	9.47	4	10.0
5	5	COMPASSION SPIRIT	6.6%	15.19	7	10.0
6	7	REGENCY MASTER	6.3%	15.82	10	40.0
7	11	INCANTO PREPARED	6.3%	15.83	3	10.0
8	9	MR DARTHVEGAR	3.5%	28.38	14	156.0
9	10	SACRED TIMING	3.3%	30.09	8	136.0
10	12	MIGHTY VALOR	3.1%	32.33	12	31.0
11	6	EURO LAGO	2.2%	46.26	11	83.0
12	4	CENTENARY IBIS	2.1%	48.01	13	158.0
13	1	HARD PROMISE	1.1%	89.44	5	34.0
14	14	BLAZING PARTNERS	1.1%	89.57	9	161.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 25

PLACE

2 13.5

11 29

13 15

QUINELLA

2,13 62.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 52.5

2,13 30.5

11,13 68

TIERCE

2,13,11 757

TRIO

2,11,13 152

FIRST 4

2,8,11,13 240

QUARTET

2,13,11,8 3,896

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 15.5

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99