沙田 · 2020-02-16
第 3場
2020-02-16沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、P F Yiu訓練的CHEERFUL LEADER勝出，贏出1-1/2。EVER LAUGH獲得亞軍；FORTUNE PATROL獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHEERFUL LEADER 後段發力 B/XB 1.35.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 8 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | EVER LAUGH 後段發力 B/TT B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 3 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | FORTUNE PATROL 後段發力 B/XB A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 9 | 24.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | DESTIN 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 30.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | RICH AND LUCKY 早段領放 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | TELECOM ROCKET CP G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 13 | 3.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | WITNESS HUNTER 後段發力 SR2 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 8.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | PARTY EVERYDAY CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 4.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | SHADOW BREAKER C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | AMAZING SATCHMO 後段發力 B T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 14 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | FAMILY LEADER 後段發力 B/H L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 11 | 84.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND H C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 12 | 192.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 1 | HOME WIN K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 6 | 58.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | COPARTNER ERA B H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 1 | 326.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 22.1% | 4.53 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | PARTY EVERYDAY | 19.5% | 5.12 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | TELECOM ROCKET | 11.8% | 8.49 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | RICH AND LUCKY | 11.2% | 8.93 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | WITNESS HUNTER | 10.4% | 9.62 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | SHADOW BREAKER | 7.5% | 13.41 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 5.0% | 19.95 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | DESTIN | 3.9% | 25.39 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | FORTUNE PATROL | 1.9% | 51.59 | 3 |
| 10 | 1 | HOME WIN | 1.9% | 52.59 | 13 |
| 11 | 12 | FAMILY LEADER | 1.4% | 71.19 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 1.4% | 72.48 | 12 |
| 13 | 10 | COPARTNER ERA | 1.0% | 96.97 | 14 |
| 14 | 2 | EVER LAUGH | 1.0% | 104.40 | 2 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 37
PLACE
2 41.5
4 15.5
14 82
QUINELLA
2,4 308.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 104.5
2,14 485
4,14 188.5
TIERCE
4,2,14 6,856
TRIO
2,4,14 1,385
FIRST 4
2,4,9,14 10,203
QUARTET
4,2,14,9 137,276
2ND DOUBLE
4/2 77.5
4/4 124
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 19.5
A3 —