沙田 · 2020-04-19
第 7場
2020-04-19沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C S Shum訓練的FANTASY勝出，贏出1/2。TEAM SPIRIT獲得亞軍；HAPPY ALUMNI獲得季軍。頭馬以1.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FANTASY B/TT 1.08.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 1 | 1.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So | K H Chan | W Y So | 12 | 42.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 5 | 7.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 6 | 21.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | ETERNAL HARVEST C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 4 | 7.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | GRADE ONE B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | LUCKY PUZZLE H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 413.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO SR Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | XIANG YIN TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 10 | 108.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | GLENEALY GENERALS M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 2 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | MOERAKI H1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 8 | 44.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM CP1/XB1 M L Yeung · J Moore | M L Yeung | J Moore | 3 | 275.0 | 18-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FANTASY | 38.6% | 2.59 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | GLENEALY GENERALS | 13.9% | 7.21 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | ETERNAL HARVEST | 9.2% | 10.83 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 7.8% | 12.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO | 7.0% | 14.34 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | XIANG YIN | 5.4% | 18.51 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 5.4% | 18.56 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | MOERAKI | 5.0% | 19.86 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | GRADE ONE | 3.4% | 29.33 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | TEAM SPIRIT | 2.3% | 42.64 | 2 |
| 11 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM | 1.4% | 69.67 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 0.6% | 178.60 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 16.5
PLACE
1 79.5
4 11.5
10 18
QUINELLA
1,4 334
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 101
1,10 359
4,10 28
TIERCE
4,1,10 2,267
TRIO
1,4,10 705
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 2,026
QUARTET
4,1,10,3 25,436
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,12/1,4,10 96,950
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 14
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
4/1 275
4/4 169.5