沙田 · 2020-04-19
第 8場
2020-04-19沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由A Hamelin策騎、C W Chang訓練的MEGA HEART勝出，贏出1/2。JUST NOT LISTENING獲得亞軍；UTOPIA LIFE獲得季軍。2.9倍大熱門UTOPIA LIFE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MEGA HEART XB/TT 1.08.87 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 8 | 31.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING V J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 4 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | UTOPIA LIFE B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 2.9 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | ZERO HEDGE PC/XB K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | ELITE PATCH H/PC/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 6.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | STAR LUCK K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 12 | 6.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | HANDSOME REBEL B V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 3 | 7.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | FEARLESS FIRE B M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 10 | 70.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | STREET SCREAM M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 89.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB H N Wong · D J Whyte | H N Wong | D J Whyte | 11 | 44.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY FAMILY H T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 9 | 379.0 | 17-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | UTOPIA LIFE | 36.1% | 2.77 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 18.4% | 5.44 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | HANDSOME REBEL | 12.9% | 7.74 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | STAR LUCK | 6.6% | 15.11 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | ZERO HEDGE | 6.1% | 16.30 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT | 4.9% | 20.41 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | MEGA HEART | 4.2% | 24.08 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | ELITE PATCH | 3.9% | 25.43 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | BIG FORTUNE | 3.4% | 29.59 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | FEARLESS FIRE | 1.5% | 67.67 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY FAMILY | 1.2% | 83.24 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | STREET SCREAM | 0.9% | 116.07 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 312.5
PLACE
2 14.5
3 62.5
4 21
QUINELLA
3,4 644.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 135
2,4 33
3,4 182
TIERCE
3,4,2 4,339
TRIO
2,3,4 321
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 868
QUARTET
3,4,2,10 34,385
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 31
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
4/3 435.5
4/4 13.5