沙田 · 2020-04-19
第 10場
2020-04-19沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P F Yiu訓練的MIGHTY GIANT勝出，贏出2-1/4。SMOOTHIES獲得亞軍；MONSTER KAKA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT 後段發力 B 1.21.12 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 4 | 1.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | SMOOTHIES 早段領放 TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 12 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 14 | MONSTER KAKA 後段發力 M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 11 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | JUNEAU PARK 後段發力 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 4.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | BEAUTY ICON 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 13 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | PURE LEGEND 後段發力 N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 10 | 174.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | TRIPLE TRIPLE 後段發力 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 8 | 394.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT C Wong · J Moore | C Wong | J Moore | 3 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SONIC FIGHTER B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 40.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 1 | 78.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 21.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 14 | 179.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | LIGHT MY DAY T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 2 | 388.0 | 17 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT | 36.7% | 2.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | JUNEAU PARK | 31.1% | 3.21 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 6.2% | 16.17 | 7 |
| 4 | 1 | GOOD BEAUTY | 4.7% | 21.11 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | SMOOTHIES | 4.7% | 21.32 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | SONIC FIGHTER | 3.9% | 25.48 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 3.3% | 30.50 | 12 |
| 8 | 14 | MONSTER KAKA | 3.2% | 31.22 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAUTY ICON | 2.3% | 44.05 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP | 1.2% | 86.77 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | PURE LEGEND | 0.9% | 109.28 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES | 0.7% | 148.35 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 0.6% | 156.00 | 8 |
| 14 | 13 | LIGHT MY DAY | 0.5% | 218.34 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 15.5
PLACE
2 12
4 49
14 72
QUINELLA
2,4 159.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 57
2,14 91
4,14 757.5
TIERCE
2,4,14 3,646
TRIO
2,4,14 1,439
FIRST 4
2,4,8,14 788
QUARTET
2,4,14,8 13,133
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 11.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,9,12/2,4,14 24,355
9TH DOUBLE
9/2 186.5
9/4 200.5
SIX UP
1/4/4/3/9/2 280,801
1,6/4,12/1,4/3,4/1,9/2,4 2,316
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/9/2 5,724
3/9/4 4,518