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Sha Tin · 2020-04-19

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FANTASY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with TEAM SPIRIT second and HAPPY ALUMNI third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 FANTASY B/TT 1.08.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C S Shum 1 1.6 1/2
2 1 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 12 42.0 1/2
3 10 HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT V Borges · K W Lui 5 7.9 1-1/2
4 3 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 6 21.0 2-1/2
5 11 ETERNAL HARVEST C Y Ho · P F Yiu 4 7.1 3-3/4
6 8 GRADE ONE B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 11 18.0 3-3/4
7 12 LUCKY PUZZLE H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 413.0 4
8 2 HANDSOME BO BO SR Z Purton · K L Man 9 11.0 4-1/2
9 5 XIANG YIN TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 10 108.0 5-3/4
10 9 GLENEALY GENERALS M Chadwick · C H Yip 2 12.0 5-3/4
11 6 MOERAKI H1 C Schofield · K H Ting 8 44.0 6-1/4
12 7 KEEP YOU WARM CP1/XB1 M L Yeung · J Moore 3 275.0 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASY2. TEAM SPIRIT+0.5L3. HAPPY ALUMNI+1.5L4. BEAUTY SPIRIT+2.5L5. ETERNAL HARVEST+3.75L6. GRADE ONE+3.75L7. LUCKY PUZZLE+4L8. HANDSOME BO BO+4.5L9. XIANG YIN+5.75L10. GLENEALY GENERALS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FANTASY (38.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FANTASY 38.6% 2.59 1
2 9 GLENEALY GENERALS 13.9% 7.21 10
3 11 ETERNAL HARVEST 9.2% 10.83 5
4 10 HAPPY ALUMNI 7.8% 12.88 3
5 2 HANDSOME BO BO 7.0% 14.34 8
6 5 XIANG YIN 5.4% 18.51 9
7 3 BEAUTY SPIRIT 5.4% 18.56 4
8 6 MOERAKI 5.0% 19.86 11
9 8 GRADE ONE 3.4% 29.33 6
10 1 TEAM SPIRIT 2.3% 42.64 2
11 7 KEEP YOU WARM 1.4% 69.67 12
12 12 LUCKY PUZZLE 0.6% 178.60 7
FANTASY — wonGLENEALY GENERALSETERNAL HARVESTHAPPY ALUMNIHANDSOME BO BOXIANG YINBEAUTY SPIRITMOERAKIGRADE ONETEAM SPIRITKEEP YOU WARMLUCKY PUZZLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 16.5

PLACE

1 79.5

4 11.5

10 18

QUINELLA

1,4 334

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 101

1,10 359

4,10 28

TIERCE

4,1,10 2,267

TRIO

1,4,10 705

FIRST 4

1,3,4,10 2,026

QUARTET

4,1,10,3 25,436

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,12/1,4,10 96,950

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 14

A2

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 275

4/4 169.5