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Sha Tin · 2020-04-19

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.37.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly TT 1.37.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · W Y So 13 1.8 3/4
2 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 9 30.0 3/4
3 0 RACING LUCK Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 10.0 3
4 0 CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 2 8.0 4
5 0 PING HAI TREASURE P K C Leung · J Size 6 14.0 5-1/4
6 0 COT CAMPBELL B C Schofield · A T Millard 4 6.9 5-1/2
7 0 BRAVE KING Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Whyte 12 361.0 6-3/4
8 0 NUREMBERG Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 1 333.0 7
9 0 TOUCH OF LUCK CP M Chadwick · J Moore 10 19.0 7-1/4
10 0 SUPERICH Closed strongly SR/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 14 13.0 8-1/4
11 0 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING Led early CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 11 18.0 11-1/4
12 0 YOUNG THUNDER CP M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 410.0 23-3/4
13 0 PRECISE EXPRESS XB1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 5 60.0 25-1/2
14 0 SHANGHAI GRACE T H So · Y S Tsui 8 290.0 28

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-19 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FOODIE PRINCESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with LONDON LUCKYSTAR second and RACING LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOODIE PRINCESS—2. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+0.75L3. RACING LUCK+3L4. CLEAR CHOICE+4L5. PING HAI TREASURE+5.25L6. COT CAMPBELL+5.5L7. BRAVE KING+6.75L8. NUREMBERG+7L9. TOUCH OF LUCK+7.25L10. SUPERICH+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FOODIE PRINCESS (47.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FOODIE PRINCESS 47.5% 2.10 1
2 0 CLEAR CHOICE 11.8% 8.47 4
3 0 COT CAMPBELL 10.5% 9.56 6
4 0 SUPERICH 7.7% 13.03 10
5 0 PING HAI TREASURE 5.0% 20.09 5
6 0 RACING LUCK 5.0% 20.19 3
7 0 TOUCH OF LUCK 4.4% 22.86 9
8 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 2.8% 35.43 2
9 0 PRECISE EXPRESS 1.7% 58.85 13
10 0 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 1.2% 80.17 11
11 0 SHANGHAI GRACE 0.9% 115.25 14
12 0 NUREMBERG 0.6% 160.13 8
13 0 YOUNG THUNDER 0.5% 193.69 12
14 0 BRAVE KING 0.4% 227.04 7
FOODIE PRINCESS — wonCLEAR CHOICECOT CAMPBELLSUPERICHPING HAI TREASURERACING LUCKTOUCH OF LUCKLONDON LUCKYSTARPRECISE EXPRESSCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGSHANGHAI GRACENUREMBERGYOUNG THUNDERBRAVE KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 18.5

PLACE

3 29

12 46

14 11.5

QUINELLA

12,14 235

QUINELLA PLACE

3,12 372.5

3,14 41.5

12,14 81

TIERCE

14,12,3 2,101

TRIO

3,12,14 808

FIRST 4

3,8,12,14 615

QUARTET

14,12,3,8 9,377

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,12/3,12,14 69,774

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 14.5

3RD DOUBLE

12/12 1,002.5

12/14 134