Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-04-19

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MEGATRON, ridden by K H Chan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with THIS ONE'S FOR YOU second and JADE FORTUNE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite SUPER RED DRAGON finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.38.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MEGATRON Wire to wire B/TT 1.38.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · P F Yiu 4 6.1 3/4
2 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly B J Moreira · K W Lui 11 4.9 3/4
3 1 JADE FORTUNE Closed strongly B Z Purton · K L Man 8 4.9 2-1/4
4 8 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly V/XB M F Poon · L Ho 9 10.0 2-1/4
5 7 STRATHCLYDE B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 1 24.0 4-1/4
6 10 BEAUTY ANGEL TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 7 100.0 4-1/2
7 14 SUPER RED DRAGON H-/B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 6 4.1 4-3/4
8 4 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V A Hamelin · C H Yip 14 16.0 5-1/4
9 11 DAILY BEAUTY B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 20.0 6
10 13 YES WE CAN CP-/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 3 22.0 6-1/4
11 3 GENERAL DINO B N Callan · D E Ferraris 10 46.0 8-1/4
12 5 RIGHTEOUS MATE C Schofield · A T Millard 2 14.0 8-1/2
13 2 SALTO OLIMPICO B B Shinn · D J Hall 12 273.0 9-1/4
14 9 STARLIT KNIGHT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 162.0 9-3/4
0 TRAVEL FIRST B Shinn · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEGATRON2. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+0.75L3. JADE FORTUNE+2.25L4. KA FORTUNE+2.25L5. STRATHCLYDE+4.25L6. BEAUTY ANGEL+4.5L7. SUPER RED DRAGON+4.75L8. CROWN AVENUE+5.25L9. DAILY BEAUTY+6L10. YES WE CAN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SUPER RED DRAGON (19.4%) finished 7th — the winner MEGATRON was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 SUPER RED DRAGON 19.4% 5.17 7
2 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 17.8% 5.60 2
3 5 RIGHTEOUS MATE 13.6% 7.37 12
4 1 JADE FORTUNE 10.6% 9.45 3
5 7 STRATHCLYDE 8.0% 12.51 5
6 12 MEGATRON 7.8% 12.80 1
7 4 CROWN AVENUE 4.2% 23.86 8
8 8 KA FORTUNE 3.9% 25.58 4
9 13 YES WE CAN 3.5% 28.51 10
10 11 DAILY BEAUTY 3.4% 29.55 9
11 3 GENERAL DINO 2.6% 37.75 11
12 10 BEAUTY ANGEL 1.9% 52.89 6
13 9 STARLIT KNIGHT 1.7% 59.18 14
14 2 SALTO OLIMPICO 1.6% 61.99 13
SUPER RED DRAGONTHIS ONE'S FOR YOURIGHTEOUS MATEJADE FORTUNESTRATHCLYDEMEGATRON — wonCROWN AVENUEKA FORTUNEYES WE CANDAILY BEAUTYGENERAL DINOBEAUTY ANGELSTARLIT KNIGHTSALTO OLIMPICO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 61

PLACE

1 18

6 20.5

12 19

QUINELLA

6,12 136.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 56

1,12 59.5

6,12 54.5

TIERCE

12,6,1 1,579

TRIO

1,6,12 265

FIRST 4

1,6,8,12 672

QUARTET

12,6,1,8 14,543

2ND DOUBLE

2/6 61.5

2/12 731

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 23

A1