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Sha Tin · 2020-04-19

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER POWER MAN 1.08.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man 2 2.7 SH
2 0 EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size 7 3.7 SH
3 0 THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 6.1 1-1/4
4 0 WAYFOONG CHARMER BO V Borges · P O'Sullivan 4 11.0 1-1/4
5 0 ELITE BOY B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 1 12.0 2-1/2
6 0 SPLENDID TIMING B T H So · C H Yip 10 122.0 3-1/4
7 0 ADONIS CP A Hamelin · D J Whyte 8 27.0 3-1/2
8 0 GENERAL TRUMP TT K C Leung · T P Yung 9 24.0 4-1/2
9 0 HANG'S DECISION B/H H W Lai · W Y So 3 56.0 6-1/2
10 0 STAR SUPERIOR H N Wong · C W Chang 11 36.0 7
11 0 SUPREME PATROL B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 5 13.0 7-1/2
12 0 VIVA COUNCIL V M Chadwick · L Ho 12 27.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUPER POWER MAN, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with EXCEL DELIGHT second and THOU SHALL SING third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER POWER MAN—2. EXCEL DELIGHT+0.1L3. THOU SHALL SING+1.25L4. WAYFOONG CHARMER+1.25L5. ELITE BOY+2.5L6. SPLENDID TIMING+3.25L7. ADONIS+3.5L8. GENERAL TRUMP+4.5L9. HANG'S DECISION+6.5L10. STAR SUPERIOR+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EXCEL DELIGHT (20.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER POWER MAN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EXCEL DELIGHT 20.7% 4.82 2
2 0 SUPER POWER MAN 17.2% 5.82 1
3 0 GENERAL TRUMP 13.5% 7.41 8
4 0 ADONIS 7.7% 12.98 7
5 0 WAYFOONG CHARMER 7.5% 13.38 4
6 0 THOU SHALL SING 7.4% 13.43 3
7 0 SUPREME PATROL 7.2% 13.82 11
8 0 ELITE BOY 7.1% 14.01 5
9 0 VIVA COUNCIL 5.6% 17.88 12
10 0 STAR SUPERIOR 2.5% 39.79 10
11 0 SPLENDID TIMING 2.1% 47.96 6
12 0 HANG'S DECISION 1.4% 72.37 9
EXCEL DELIGHTSUPER POWER MAN — wonGENERAL TRUMPADONISWAYFOONG CHARMERTHOU SHALL SINGSUPREME PATROLELITE BOYVIVA COUNCILSTAR SUPERIORSPLENDID TIMINGHANG'S DECISION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 27

PLACE

1 13.5

4 20

6 14.5

QUINELLA

1,6 61.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 36.5

1,6 27.5

4,6 44

TIERCE

1,6,4 331

TRIO

1,4,6 94

FIRST 4

1,4,6,11 157

QUARTET

1,6,4,11 1,844

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 15.5

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

14/1 47.5

14/6 12.5