跑馬地 · 2020-05-13
第 2場
2020-05-13跑馬地第2場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由M F Poon策騎、C W Chang訓練的INDIGENOUS STAR勝出，贏出HD。CHARITY WINGS獲得亞軍；COURAGEOUS DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門SUMSTREETSUMWHERE跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | INDIGENOUS STAR 後段發力 TT 1.39.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 21.0 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | CHARITY WINGS 後段發力 B B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 6 | 19.0 | HD |
| 3 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON 後段發力 B/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 3 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | SMILING SUCCESS 早段領放 B/TT C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 1 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 後段發力 B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 5 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 4 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | RIGHTEOUS MATE 後段發力 K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 11 | 29.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ROMAN IMPERO B C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 7 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | STAR MAJESTIC B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | HOME MADE B/XB/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 10 | 26.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | DOUBLE TAKE 後段發力 M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 12 | 143.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | GALAXY EMPEROR CP/H/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 9 | 30.0 | 20-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 35.3% | 2.83 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 17.1% | 5.85 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | SMILING SUCCESS | 10.1% | 9.91 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 9.3% | 10.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | HOME MADE | 5.7% | 17.61 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | ROMAN IMPERO | 5.3% | 19.02 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | STAR MAJESTIC | 3.9% | 25.58 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 3.8% | 26.15 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | RIGHTEOUS MATE | 3.3% | 30.41 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | CHARITY WINGS | 3.0% | 33.43 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 2.2% | 45.83 | 1 |
| 12 | 9 | DOUBLE TAKE | 1.1% | 94.88 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 213.5
PLACE
1 46.5
8 42
11 13.5
QUINELLA
1,8 1,664.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 364
1,11 92.5
8,11 108.5
TIERCE
8,1,11 15,287
TRIO
1,8,11 1,407
FIRST 4
1,8,10,11 3,401
QUARTET
8,1,11,10 132,598
1ST DOUBLE
11/1 746.5
11/8 3,042.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 33
A1 —