沙田 · 2020-06-21
第 9場
2020-06-21沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的FLYING SWORD勝出，贏出2。FANTASTIC SHOW獲得亞軍；GOOD BEAUTY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FLYING SWORD 後段發力 CP/TT 1.21.10 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 3.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 9 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | GOOD BEAUTY B/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 10 | 30.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | PICKEN 後段發力 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 11 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ENTRUSTED 後段發力 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 7 | 89.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 5 | 43.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | CHARIZARD CP1/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 3 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | REEL BIZZY B M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 9.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | NOBLE STEED 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | NORDIC WARRIOR 後段發力 B V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 13 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SUPERB DADDY C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 1 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 8 | DAY DAY RICH 早段領放 B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 14 | 158.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | SUPERICH B/SR/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 9.2 | 27-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 20.4% | 4.89 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SUPERICH | 13.7% | 7.28 | 14 |
| 3 | 11 | FLYING SWORD | 13.6% | 7.36 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | REEL BIZZY | 11.9% | 8.40 | 8 |
| 5 | 13 | SUPERB DADDY | 11.4% | 8.76 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | PICKEN | 6.1% | 16.36 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | GOOD BEAUTY | 5.4% | 18.66 | 3 |
| 8 | 14 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 5.3% | 18.99 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN | 3.2% | 31.66 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | EVER LAUGH | 3.0% | 33.24 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | CHARIZARD | 2.4% | 42.33 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | NOBLE STEED | 1.6% | 63.35 | 9 |
| 13 | 7 | ENTRUSTED | 1.0% | 95.74 | 5 |
| 14 | 8 | DAY DAY RICH | 1.0% | 99.03 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 37.5
PLACE
3 15
4 73
11 18
QUINELLA
3,11 81
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 169.5
3,11 34
4,11 159.5
TIERCE
11,3,4 2,089
TRIO
3,4,11 541
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 1,517
QUARTET
11,3,4,2 25,670
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
5/3 211.5
5/11 1,338