沙田 · 2020-06-21
第 4場
2020-06-21沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C L Chau策騎、D J Whyte訓練的FIRST RESPONDER勝出，贏出1。GOLDEN LINK獲得亞軍；BIG LUCK CHAMP獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門GOLDEN LINK跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FIRST RESPONDER CP-/B1/TT- 1.09.17 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 8.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 3 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | BIG LUCK CHAMP B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 88.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | HAPPY VICTORY B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 5 | 6.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | NOBLE CONSORT B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 8 | 111.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | LUCKY PUZZLE B1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 12 | 124.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | SPEEDY DRAGON T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 4 | 41.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | TIGER GLARE H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 230.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | WAR LORD B-/E1 V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 10 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | JADE THEATRE B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 7 | 7.6 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME H/XB/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 2 | 7.5 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | HARD PROMISE K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 13 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | SHIMMER AND SHINE CP- C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 14 | 55.0 | 7-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK | 26.4% | 3.78 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME | 20.4% | 4.91 | 12 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY VICTORY | 10.3% | 9.74 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | JADE THEATRE | 9.4% | 10.68 | 11 |
| 5 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS | 9.2% | 10.87 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | WAR LORD | 5.4% | 18.66 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | HARD PROMISE | 4.4% | 22.76 | 13 |
| 8 | 10 | SHIMMER AND SHINE | 4.1% | 24.12 | 14 |
| 9 | 3 | FIRST RESPONDER | 3.3% | 29.87 | 1 |
| 10 | 14 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 2.6% | 38.69 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | BIG LUCK CHAMP | 1.4% | 70.86 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | NOBLE CONSORT | 1.2% | 80.59 | 5 |
| 13 | 6 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 1.2% | 82.39 | 6 |
| 14 | 11 | TIGER GLARE | 0.7% | 148.43 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 81.5
PLACE
3 22
5 13.5
7 149
QUINELLA
3,5 105
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 45
3,7 724
5,7 269.5
TIERCE
3,5,7 10,753
TRIO
3,5,7 2,052
FIRST 4
3,5,7,8 2,080
QUARTET
3,5,7,8 65,006
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 31.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
3/3 512
3/5 23.5