沙田 · 2020-06-21
第 11場
2020-06-21沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、P F Yiu訓練的GOOD LUCK FRIEND勝出，贏出N。BIG FORTUNE獲得亞軍；BIZ POWER獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP 1.08.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 3 | 1.8 | N |
| 2 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.6 | N |
| 3 | 8 | BIZ POWER B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SUPER DOBBIN K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 13 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | CRUISING A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 12 | 49.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | WIND N GRASS TT K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 14 | 49.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | ELIGERE V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 6 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 11 | 105.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 7 | 55.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 9 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | STANLEY PARK V C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 8 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 14 | LIKE THAT B M L Yeung · J Moore | M L Yeung | J Moore | 10 | 37.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 1 | 129.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 2 | BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 4 | 28.0 | 7-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | BIZ POWER | 18.1% | 5.53 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE | 5.6% | 17.97 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | CRUISING | 5.6% | 18.01 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS | 5.5% | 18.11 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | ELIGERE | 5.4% | 18.59 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | STANLEY PARK | 5.4% | 18.68 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 3.8% | 26.06 | 14 |
| 9 | 14 | LIKE THAT | 3.6% | 28.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPER DOBBIN | 2.5% | 40.22 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND | 2.0% | 48.78 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | WIND N GRASS | 1.9% | 51.81 | 6 |
| 13 | 13 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.5% | 68.26 | 13 |
| 14 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 1.0% | 104.41 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 18
PLACE
5 11.5
8 16
10 17.5
QUINELLA
5,10 58
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 21.5
5,10 25.5
8,10 46.5
TIERCE
5,10,8 252
TRIO
5,8,10 69
FIRST 4
1,5,8,10 267
QUARTET
5,10,8,1 2,805
10TH DOUBLE
3/5 57.5
3/10 96
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,14/5,8,10 3,120
SIX UP
6/8/5/11/3/5 1,113,546
6,13/8,10/5,7/3,11/3,14/5,10 17,855
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
11/3/5 264
11/3/10 281