Sha Tin · 2020-06-21
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOOD LUCK FRIEND, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with BIG FORTUNE second and BIZ POWER third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 3 | 1.8 | N |
| 2 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.6 | N |
| 3 | 8 | BIZ POWER B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SUPER DOBBIN K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 13 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | CRUISING A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 12 | 49.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | WIND N GRASS TT K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 14 | 49.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | ELIGERE V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 6 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 11 | 105.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 7 | 55.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 9 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | STANLEY PARK V C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 8 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 14 | LIKE THAT B M L Yeung · J Moore | M L Yeung | J Moore | 10 | 37.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 1 | 129.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 2 | BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 4 | 28.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | BIZ POWER | 18.1% | 5.53 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE | 5.6% | 17.97 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | CRUISING | 5.6% | 18.01 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS | 5.5% | 18.11 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | ELIGERE | 5.4% | 18.59 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | STANLEY PARK | 5.4% | 18.68 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 3.8% | 26.06 | 14 |
| 9 | 14 | LIKE THAT | 3.6% | 28.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPER DOBBIN | 2.5% | 40.22 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND | 2.0% | 48.78 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | WIND N GRASS | 1.9% | 51.81 | 6 |
| 13 | 13 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.5% | 68.26 | 13 |
| 14 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 1.0% | 104.41 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 18
PLACE
5 11.5
8 16
10 17.5
QUINELLA
5,10 58
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 21.5
5,10 25.5
8,10 46.5
TIERCE
5,10,8 252
TRIO
5,8,10 69
FIRST 4
1,5,8,10 267
QUARTET
5,10,8,1 2,805
10TH DOUBLE
3/5 57.5
3/10 96
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,14/5,8,10 3,120
SIX UP
6/8/5/11/3/5 1,113,546
6,13/8,10/5,7/3,11/3,14/5,10 17,855
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
11/3/5 264
11/3/10 281