Sha Tin · 2020-06-21
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DANCES WITH DRAGON, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C Fownes, won by 4-3/4, with HELENE LEADINGSTAR second and FURORE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MORE THAN THIS finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DANCES WITH DRAGON Closed strongly V-/TT 1.45.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 3 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | FURORE B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND Led early TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 4.2 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | MORE THAN THIS CP Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 7 | 2.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | HARMONY VICTORY SR/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 8 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | SAVVY NINE TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 1 | 7.4 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MORE THAN THIS | 23.0% | 4.36 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | FURORE | 19.8% | 5.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | SAVVY NINE | 15.0% | 6.65 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 14.1% | 7.10 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | DANCES WITH DRAGON | 11.0% | 9.05 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 7.9% | 12.71 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | PRECIOUSSHIP | 5.7% | 17.61 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | HARMONY VICTORY | 3.5% | 28.58 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 172
PLACE
2 17.5
5 51.5
7 24.5
QUINELLA
5,7 1,089.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 162
2,7 81.5
5,7 258.5
TIERCE
5,7,2 10,106
TRIO
2,5,7 1,127
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 1,760
QUARTET
5,7,2,6 67,154
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
8,9,10/2,5,7 543,450
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 56
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
8/5 2,327.5
8/7 178
WINNING TRAINER
B1 34
B3 —
B2 —