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Sha Tin · 2020-06-21

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULLISH GLORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1, with MISTER MONTE second and CHEERFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 6.2 favourite GIANT TURTLE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 2.01.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H 2.01.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 3 6.7 1
2 13 MISTER MONTE Closed strongly CP M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 10.0 1
3 11 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 4 13.0 1-1/4
4 10 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.6 2-1/4
5 5 SALTO OLIMPICO B T H So · D J Hall 12 79.0 3-1/2
5 12 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 5 6.7 3-1/2
7 3 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 53.0 4
8 4 GIANT TURTLE Led early SR/TT C L Chau · A T Millard 11 6.2 4-1/4
9 2 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA TT J Moreira · T P Yung 1 8.2 5-1/2
10 8 JOLLY FOREVER B1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 9 65.0 5-1/2
11 1 GALA NIGHT CP V Borges · J Moore 2 9.8 5-3/4
12 9 EXALTATION V/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 13 14.0 7-1/4
13 7 CROWN AVENUE V-/B2 K H Chan · C H Yip 6 10.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLISH GLORY2. MISTER MONTE+1L3. CHEERFUL STAR+1.25L4. GOOD DAYS+2.25L5. SALTO OLIMPICO+3.5L5. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3.5L7. PERFECT TO PLAY+4L8. GIANT TURTLE+4.25L9. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+5.5L10. JOLLY FOREVER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORIOUS SEEKER (19.4%) finished 5th — the winner BULLISH GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 19.4% 5.15 5
2 6 BULLISH GLORY 16.9% 5.92 1
3 2 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 12.9% 7.74 9
4 10 GOOD DAYS 11.8% 8.47 4
5 1 GALA NIGHT 9.5% 10.47 11
6 9 EXALTATION 6.9% 14.59 12
7 13 MISTER MONTE 4.4% 22.48 2
8 7 CROWN AVENUE 4.2% 23.88 13
9 11 CHEERFUL STAR 3.7% 27.11 3
10 4 GIANT TURTLE 3.4% 29.40 8
11 5 SALTO OLIMPICO 3.0% 32.84 5
12 3 PERFECT TO PLAY 2.8% 35.54 7
13 8 JOLLY FOREVER 1.0% 101.34 10
VICTORIOUS SEEKERBULLISH GLORY — wonKUNGFUMASTER PANDAGOOD DAYSGALA NIGHTEXALTATIONMISTER MONTECROWN AVENUECHEERFUL STARGIANT TURTLESALTO OLIMPICOPERFECT TO PLAYJOLLY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 67.5

PLACE

6 26

11 42

13 39.5

QUINELLA

6,13 590.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 221

6,13 203

11,13 382.5

TIERCE

6,13,11 19,935

TRIO

6,11,13 3,137

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 3,224

QUARTET

6,13,11,10 79,424

3 PICK 1

A2 27

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/6 253

1/13 144