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Sha Tin · 2020-06-21

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 2.01.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H 2.01.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 3 6.7 1
2 0 MISTER MONTE Closed strongly CP M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 10.0 1
3 0 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 4 13.0 1-1/4
4 0 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.6 2-1/4
5 0 SALTO OLIMPICO B T H So · D J Hall 12 79.0 3-1/2
5 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 5 6.7 3-1/2
7 0 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 53.0 4
8 0 GIANT TURTLE Led early SR/TT C L Chau · A T Millard 11 6.2 4-1/4
9 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA TT J Moreira · T P Yung 1 8.2 5-1/2
10 0 JOLLY FOREVER B1/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 9 65.0 5-1/2
11 0 GALA NIGHT CP V Borges · J Moore 2 9.8 5-3/4
12 0 EXALTATION V/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 13 14.0 7-1/4
13 0 CROWN AVENUE V-/B2 K H Chan · C H Yip 6 10.0 7-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULLISH GLORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1, with MISTER MONTE second and CHEERFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 6.2 favourite GIANT TURTLE finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLISH GLORY—2. MISTER MONTE+1L3. CHEERFUL STAR+1.25L4. GOOD DAYS+2.25L5. SALTO OLIMPICO+3.5L5. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3.5L7. PERFECT TO PLAY+4L8. GIANT TURTLE+4.25L9. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+5.5L10. JOLLY FOREVER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORIOUS SEEKER (19.4%) finished 5th — the winner BULLISH GLORY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 19.4% 5.15 5
2 0 BULLISH GLORY 16.9% 5.92 1
3 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 12.9% 7.74 9
4 0 GOOD DAYS 11.8% 8.47 4
5 0 GALA NIGHT 9.5% 10.47 11
6 0 EXALTATION 6.9% 14.59 12
7 0 MISTER MONTE 4.4% 22.48 2
8 0 CROWN AVENUE 4.2% 23.88 13
9 0 CHEERFUL STAR 3.7% 27.11 3
10 0 GIANT TURTLE 3.4% 29.40 8
11 0 SALTO OLIMPICO 3.0% 32.84 5
12 0 PERFECT TO PLAY 2.8% 35.54 7
13 0 JOLLY FOREVER 1.0% 101.34 10
VICTORIOUS SEEKERBULLISH GLORY — wonKUNGFUMASTER PANDAGOOD DAYSGALA NIGHTEXALTATIONMISTER MONTECROWN AVENUECHEERFUL STARGIANT TURTLESALTO OLIMPICOPERFECT TO PLAYJOLLY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 67.5

PLACE

6 26

11 42

13 39.5

QUINELLA

6,13 590.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 221

6,13 203

11,13 382.5

TIERCE

6,13,11 19,935

TRIO

6,11,13 3,137

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 3,224

QUARTET

6,13,11,10 79,424

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 27

A1 —

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/6 253

1/13 144