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Sha Tin · 2020-06-21

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING BREW, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 3-1/2, with GOLDEN MISSION second and WINNING STRIKES third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 WINNING BREW 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 14 2.8 3-1/2
2 13 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 8 11.0 3-1/2
3 7 WINNING STRIKES M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 12 139.0 4-1/4
4 6 VOYAGE STAR V/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 11 23.0 5
5 4 INNO LEGEND K C Leung · K L Man 7 124.0 5-3/4
6 9 ROMAN IMPERO V-/B2 T H So · C H Yip 2 9.3 6-1/4
7 5 SUPER MISSION C Y Ho · P F Yiu 9 5.0 6-1/2
8 12 DR PROACTIVE C Schofield · K H Ting 1 19.0 6-1/2
9 14 GREEN ENVY TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 3 9.8 7
10 11 RUN THE TABLE H H N Wong · K W Lui 5 168.0 7-1/2
11 10 PRIME TIME B/H V Borges · Y S Tsui 13 226.0 9-1/2
12 2 NOBLE MAN E1/TT J Moreira · J Size 4 10.0 10-1/4
13 8 ERIN CENTENARY H/TT H W Lai · C S Shum 6 283.0 11-1/2
14 1 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK CP C L Chau · W Y So 10 7.3 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING BREW2. GOLDEN MISSION+3.5L3. WINNING STRIKES+4.25L4. VOYAGE STAR+5L5. INNO LEGEND+5.75L6. ROMAN IMPERO+6.25L7. SUPER MISSION+6.5L8. DR PROACTIVE+6.5L9. GREEN ENVY+7L10. RUN THE TABLE+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WINNING BREW (44.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WINNING BREW 44.0% 2.27 1
2 2 NOBLE MAN 18.9% 5.28 12
3 5 SUPER MISSION 7.2% 13.86 7
4 14 GREEN ENVY 6.0% 16.59 9
5 1 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 5.1% 19.58 14
6 13 GOLDEN MISSION 5.0% 19.83 2
7 12 DR PROACTIVE 3.8% 26.66 8
8 6 VOYAGE STAR 3.3% 29.88 4
9 4 INNO LEGEND 2.0% 50.70 5
10 9 ROMAN IMPERO 1.6% 63.30 6
11 7 WINNING STRIKES 1.1% 93.44 3
12 11 RUN THE TABLE 0.9% 106.43 10
13 10 PRIME TIME 0.5% 187.46 11
14 8 ERIN CENTENARY 0.5% 204.18 13
WINNING BREW — wonNOBLE MANSUPER MISSIONGREEN ENVYGOODLUCK GOODLUCKGOLDEN MISSIONDR PROACTIVEVOYAGE STARINNO LEGENDROMAN IMPEROWINNING STRIKESRUN THE TABLEPRIME TIMEERIN CENTENARY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 28

PLACE

3 12.5

7 255

13 34

QUINELLA

3,13 161.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 505.5

3,13 65.5

7,13 1,482.5

TIERCE

3,13,7 12,769

TRIO

3,7,13 4,002

FIRST 4

3,6,7,13 20,492

QUARTET

3,13,7,6 195,334

1ST DOUBLE

1/3 288

1/13 139.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18