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Sha Tin · 2020-06-21

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. UNITED WE STAND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 5, with JIMSON THE DRAGON second and LA BOMBA third. Victory came as the 4.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 UNITED WE STAND B/TT 0.55.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 14 4.9 5
2 11 JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 8 10.0 5
3 8 LA BOMBA TT B Shinn · K L Man 1 11.0 5-1/2
4 14 BANDY B C Wong · A T Millard 11 42.0 6
5 9 FLYING MONKEY CP-/BO2/TT C Schofield · J Moore 9 7.7 6-1/4
6 10 MONEYMORE CO/TT V Borges · W Y So 4 7.2 6-1/2
7 5 ISLAND WINNER CO/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 18.0 6-3/4
8 6 AURORA STEED B-/V1 J Moreira · C Fownes 2 9.6 7
9 2 MASTER GALAXY H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 40.0 7-3/4
10 4 ROMAN ODYSSEY XB1/H2/TT- A Hamelin · C W Chang 3 26.0 8-1/4
11 12 WHISTLE UP B K Teetan · L Ho 10 9.0 10-1/2
12 13 GUERDON HELMET B-/CP2 H W Lai · D E Ferraris 12 123.0 10-3/4
13 7 SPICY REALLY B/TT1 H N Wong · F C Lor 5 42.0 10-3/4
14 3 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB Z Purton · D J Hall 6 5.8 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNITED WE STAND2. JIMSON THE DRAGON+5L3. LA BOMBA+5.5L4. BANDY+6L5. FLYING MONKEY+6.25L6. MONEYMORE+6.5L7. ISLAND WINNER+6.75L8. AURORA STEED+7L9. MASTER GALAXY+7.75L10. ROMAN ODYSSEY+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AURORA STEED (27.0%) finished 8th — the winner UNITED WE STAND was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 AURORA STEED 27.0% 3.70 8
2 4 ROMAN ODYSSEY 15.8% 6.32 10
3 10 MONEYMORE 11.2% 8.94 6
4 3 OVERSUBSCRIBED 9.6% 10.46 14
5 9 FLYING MONKEY 6.4% 15.63 5
6 12 WHISTLE UP 5.7% 17.50 11
7 1 UNITED WE STAND 5.1% 19.63 1
8 11 JIMSON THE DRAGON 4.5% 22.22 2
9 7 SPICY REALLY 3.9% 25.80 13
10 2 MASTER GALAXY 3.4% 29.33 9
11 8 LA BOMBA 3.4% 29.76 3
12 5 ISLAND WINNER 2.0% 49.03 7
13 14 BANDY 1.1% 89.21 4
14 13 GUERDON HELMET 0.9% 110.69 12
AURORA STEEDROMAN ODYSSEYMONEYMOREOVERSUBSCRIBEDFLYING MONKEYWHISTLE UPUNITED WE STAND — wonJIMSON THE DRAGONSPICY REALLYMASTER GALAXYLA BOMBAISLAND WINNERBANDYGUERDON HELMET

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 49.5

PLACE

1 20

8 42

11 32.5

QUINELLA

1,11 286.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 102

1,11 108

8,11 258

TIERCE

1,11,8 6,504

TRIO

1,8,11 1,290

FIRST 4

1,8,11,14 10,145

QUARTET

1,11,8,14 240,520

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 16.5