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Sha Tin · 2020-06-21

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B 1.21.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 10 4.1 1-1/2
2 0 KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 7 3.9 1-1/2
3 0 MARVEL DRAGON TT Z Purton · T P Yung 12 7.9 1-3/4
4 0 THE ROCK Closed strongly H1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 4.5 1-3/4
5 0 AWE Closed strongly C Wong · J Moore 13 43.0 2-1/2
6 0 LE TERROIR Closed strongly CP/XB H N Wong · L Ho 3 133.0 3
7 0 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E K H Chan · J Size 14 48.0 4-1/2
8 0 PRECIOUS EXPRESS M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 42.0 5-3/4
9 0 TAKING AIM Led early CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 9.5 5-3/4
10 0 MOERAKI CP K C Leung · K H Ting 2 88.0 6-1/2
11 0 GLORIOUS LOVER V Borges · Y S Tsui 8 24.0 6-3/4
12 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B/BR1 A Hamelin · K W Lui 5 12.0 7-3/4
13 0 FLYING VICTORY H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 20.0 8-3/4
14 0 SUPER QILIN XB/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 1 183.0 25-1/2
— 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND B Shinn · C S Shum — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/2, with KA YING EXCELLENT second and MARVEL DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite KA YING EXCELLENT finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING CHOCOLATE—2. KA YING EXCELLENT+1.5L3. MARVEL DRAGON+1.75L4. THE ROCK+1.75L5. AWE+2.5L6. LE TERROIR+3L7. CHAIRMAN LO+4.5L8. PRECIOUS EXPRESS+5.75L9. TAKING AIM+5.75L10. MOERAKI+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick KA YING EXCELLENT (22.7%) finished 2nd — the winner AMAZING CHOCOLATE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KA YING EXCELLENT 22.7% 4.41 2
2 0 MARVEL DRAGON 17.5% 5.72 3
3 0 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 12.9% 7.75 1
4 0 THE ROCK 8.8% 11.31 4
5 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 8.6% 11.62 12
6 0 FLYING VICTORY 6.9% 14.40 13
7 0 TAKING AIM 5.4% 18.55 9
8 0 CHAIRMAN LO 4.3% 23.07 7
9 0 PRECIOUS EXPRESS 2.9% 33.95 8
10 0 AWE 2.9% 34.05 5
11 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.4% 40.88 11
12 0 MOERAKI 2.4% 41.53 10
13 0 LE TERROIR 1.5% 67.60 6
14 0 SUPER QILIN 0.6% 168.09 14
KA YING EXCELLENTMARVEL DRAGONAMAZING CHOCOLATE — wonTHE ROCKHIGH RISE SOLDIERFLYING VICTORYTAKING AIMCHAIRMAN LOPRECIOUS EXPRESSAWEGLORIOUS LOVERMOERAKILE TERROIRSUPER QILIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 41

PLACE

3 18.5

7 25.5

14 16

QUINELLA

3,14 94

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 71

3,14 38.5

7,14 66.5

TIERCE

3,14,7 1,156

TRIO

3,7,14 239

FIRST 4

3,4,7,14 280

QUARTET

3,14,7,4 4,992

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 21.5

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

11/3 134

11/14 28