沙田 · 2020-11-01
第 4場
2020-11-01沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、T P Yung訓練的SPEED FAY FAY勝出，贏出NOSE。MERCURIAL獲得亞軍；DIAMOND RHYME獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門KASI FARASI跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY 後段發力 B 1.21.88 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 12 | 9.1 | NOSE |
| 2 | 7 | MERCURIAL 早段領放 XB1/TT- C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 6 | 33.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | DIAMOND RHYME CP- K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 14 | 54.0 | SH |
| 4 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET 後段發力 B-/CP2 J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 5 | 5.5 | HD |
| 5 | 10 | FAST PACE 後段發力 H/P N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | N |
| 6 | 1 | KASI FARASI 後段發力 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 9 | 3.1 | N |
| 7 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | DAILY CHARM 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 11 | 206.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | GO GOAL TOBY C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 3 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE B- V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 13 | 97.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | PEARL CHAMPION B T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 1 | 35.0 | 4 |
| 13 | 13 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 8 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | SPARKY STAR B M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 10 | 23.0 | 7-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET | 23.2% | 4.32 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | MORE THAN ENOUGH | 13.4% | 7.46 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY | 7.8% | 12.84 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | SMART CHARADE | 7.2% | 13.81 | 13 |
| 5 | 5 | PEARL CHAMPION | 7.1% | 14.13 | 12 |
| 6 | 7 | MERCURIAL | 6.8% | 14.71 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | KASI FARASI | 6.7% | 14.93 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | GO GOAL TOBY | 6.3% | 15.75 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | FAST PACE | 5.6% | 17.80 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | CASIMIRO | 4.5% | 22.20 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | DIAMOND RHYME | 3.9% | 25.46 | 3 |
| 12 | 9 | SPARKY STAR | 3.6% | 28.04 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | DAILY CHARM | 2.5% | 39.55 | 9 |
| 14 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE | 1.3% | 75.33 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 91.5
PLACE
7 87
11 129
12 34.5
QUINELLA
7,12 1,708
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 1,913.5
7,12 488
11,12 596
FORECAST
12,7 2,806
TIERCE
12,7,11 100,682
TRIO
7,11,12 25,985
FIRST 4
4,7,11,12 34,031
QUARTET
12,7,11,4 789,090
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,6,11/7,11,12 400,780
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 26.5
3RD DOUBLE
11/7 389.5
11/12 721.5