沙田 · 2021-03-21
第 4場
2021-03-21沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的CHARITY GRACE勝出，贏出2-3/4。MASTER HERO獲得亞軍；UNICORNBABY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHARITY GRACE 後段發力 B 1.21.99 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 1.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | MASTER HERO 後段發力 XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | UNICORNBABY B/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 10 | 6.7 | 3 |
| 4 | 13 | APEX TOP B M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 3 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 後段發力 V/TT1 A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 13 | 5.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | MUDITA 後段發力 N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | ON EXCEL STAR 後段發力 XB1 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 112.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | RUBY STARS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 1 | 314.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | FORMULA EXCEL C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 5 | 140.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SPARKY STAR 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 10.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | STRONG ALLIANCE C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 181.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | SMILING FACE B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 11 | 47.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 11 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL 早段領放 B/TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 14 | 77.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 12 | THE SUBMARINE B C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 400.0 | 14-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHARITY GRACE | 42.2% | 2.37 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | MASTER HERO | 13.1% | 7.61 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 12.5% | 7.98 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | UNICORNBABY | 8.2% | 12.25 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | SPARKY STAR | 5.7% | 17.42 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | MUDITA | 4.7% | 21.08 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | APEX TOP | 3.2% | 31.45 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | SMILING FACE | 2.4% | 41.88 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | ON EXCEL STAR | 1.9% | 51.92 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FORMULA EXCEL | 1.9% | 53.46 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | STRONG ALLIANCE | 1.6% | 61.44 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 1.3% | 75.66 | 13 |
| 13 | 6 | RUBY STARS | 0.6% | 161.80 | 8 |
| 14 | 12 | THE SUBMARINE | 0.6% | 168.28 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 19.5
PLACE
1 11.5
3 28.5
5 19.5
QUINELLA
1,3 102.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 41.5
1,5 28.5
3,5 97.5
FORECAST
1,3 140
TIERCE
1,3,5 547
TRIO
1,3,5 153
FIRST 4
1,3,5,13 365
QUARTET
1,3,5,13 3,957
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,10/1,3,5 6,346
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/1 44.5
1/3 58.5