沙田 · 2021-12-27 · 16:43
第 8場
2021-12-27沙田第8場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的SIGHT SPIRIT勝出，贏出3。CHEERFUL LEADER獲得亞軍；HANG'S DECISION獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SIGHT SPIRIT 後段發力 1.22.70 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 1.4 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | CHEERFUL LEADER 後段發力 B-/XB H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 1 | 35.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | HANG'S DECISION 後段發力 B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | DANDY YEARS B/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 8 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | CHATER PINS 後段發力 SR1 A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 12 | 39.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 7 | 17.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | NICHOLSON RETURNS 後段發力 B1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 14 | 124.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | SNOWALOT 早段領放 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | ERNEST FEELING 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 13 | 18.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | WONDERFUL FANTASY CP V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 11 | 240.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | PEAK TO PEAK B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 23.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | PRIDE OF DRAGON H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 10 | 113.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | KING DRAGON V/XB H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 81.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | HEARTY WISH SR-/H/B1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 13.0 | 13 |
| — | 0 | SPARKY STAR M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SIGHT SPIRIT | 37.8% | 2.64 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | FLYING SWORD | 10.0% | 9.97 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | SNOWALOT | 9.5% | 10.53 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | ERNEST FEELING | 8.1% | 12.31 | 9 |
| 5 | 12 | CHATER PINS | 6.2% | 16.19 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | HEARTY WISH | 5.9% | 17.09 | 14 |
| 7 | 4 | DANDY YEARS | 5.3% | 18.80 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 4.5% | 22.29 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | PEAK TO PEAK | 3.9% | 25.33 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | HANG'S DECISION | 3.1% | 32.76 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | KING DRAGON | 2.8% | 35.35 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 1.5% | 68.55 | 2 |
| 13 | 13 | PRIDE OF DRAGON | 0.9% | 115.97 | 12 |
| 14 | 14 | WONDERFUL FANTASY | 0.5% | 187.49 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 14.5
PLACE
2 10.5
3 30
11 52
QUINELLA
2,11 167.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 39.5
2,11 67.5
3,11 334
FORECAST
2,11 255
TIERCE
2,11,3 1,548
TRIO
2,3,11 524
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 2,042
QUARTET
2,11,3,4 18,674
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
10/2 101.5
10/11 626.5