Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SIGHT SPIRIT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3, with CHEERFUL LEADER second and HANG'S DECISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SIGHT SPIRIT Closed strongly 1.22.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 3 1.4 3
2 11 CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B-/XB H Bentley · P F Yiu 1 35.0 3
3 3 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So 6 13.0 3-1/2
4 4 DANDY YEARS B/TT R Maia · C S Shum 8 26.0 3-1/2
5 12 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR1 A Hamelin · D A Hayes 12 39.0 4-3/4
6 5 FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 17.0 5
7 6 NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B1 M F Poon · D J Hall 14 124.0 5-3/4
8 1 SNOWALOT Led early B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 5 11.0 6-1/2
9 9 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 13 18.0 6-3/4
10 14 WONDERFUL FANTASY CP V Borges · K W Lui 11 240.0 8
11 8 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 23.0 9
12 13 PRIDE OF DRAGON H N Wong · C H Yip 10 113.0 9-3/4
13 7 KING DRAGON V/XB H W Lai · K L Man 2 81.0 10-1/2
14 10 HEARTY WISH SR-/H/B1/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 13.0 13
0 SPARKY STAR M L Yeung · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT SPIRIT2. CHEERFUL LEADER+3L3. HANG'S DECISION+3.5L4. DANDY YEARS+3.5L5. CHATER PINS+4.75L6. FLYING SWORD+5L7. NICHOLSON RETURNS+5.75L8. SNOWALOT+6.5L9. ERNEST FEELING+6.75L10. WONDERFUL FANTASY+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SIGHT SPIRIT (37.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SIGHT SPIRIT 37.8% 2.64 1
2 5 FLYING SWORD 10.0% 9.97 6
3 1 SNOWALOT 9.5% 10.53 8
4 9 ERNEST FEELING 8.1% 12.31 9
5 12 CHATER PINS 6.2% 16.19 5
6 10 HEARTY WISH 5.9% 17.09 14
7 4 DANDY YEARS 5.3% 18.80 4
8 6 NICHOLSON RETURNS 4.5% 22.29 7
9 8 PEAK TO PEAK 3.9% 25.33 11
10 3 HANG'S DECISION 3.1% 32.76 3
11 7 KING DRAGON 2.8% 35.35 13
12 11 CHEERFUL LEADER 1.5% 68.55 2
13 13 PRIDE OF DRAGON 0.9% 115.97 12
14 14 WONDERFUL FANTASY 0.5% 187.49 10
SIGHT SPIRIT — wonFLYING SWORDSNOWALOTERNEST FEELINGCHATER PINSHEARTY WISHDANDY YEARSNICHOLSON RETURNSPEAK TO PEAKHANG'S DECISIONKING DRAGONCHEERFUL LEADERPRIDE OF DRAGONWONDERFUL FANTASY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 14.5

PLACE

2 10.5

3 30

11 52

QUINELLA

2,11 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 39.5

2,11 67.5

3,11 334

FORECAST

2,11 255

TIERCE

2,11,3 1,548

TRIO

2,3,11 524

FIRST 4

2,3,4,11 2,042

QUARTET

2,11,3,4 18,674

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 13

A2

7TH DOUBLE

10/2 101.5

10/11 626.5