Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 14:03
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. SENOR TOBA, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with ENJOYING second and CHARITY GO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SENOR TOBA Closed strongly TT 2.02.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 2.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | ENJOYING Led early B/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 6 | 9.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 9 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | BERLIN TANGO H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING DRAGON H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 9.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | FLYING QUEST B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 7.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 3 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | HIT THE SHOT P-/H1/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 45.0 | 5 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SENOR TOBA | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | BERLIN TANGO | 9.8% | 10.25 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 8.0% | 12.47 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | FLYING QUEST | 7.9% | 12.71 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | HIT THE SHOT | 7.8% | 12.88 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 6.1% | 16.45 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | CHARITY GO | 6.1% | 16.48 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING DRAGON | 5.6% | 17.84 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | ENJOYING | 3.3% | 29.87 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 21
PLACE
5 11.5
6 27
9 26
QUINELLA
5,6 112.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 46
5,9 45
6,9 118.5
FORECAST
5,6 145
TIERCE
5,6,9 1,107
TRIO
5,6,9 306
FIRST 4
3,5,6,9 307
QUARTET
5,6,9,3 4,847
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
13/5 519
13/6 672
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 21
A2 —