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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CARROLL STREET, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with CORDYCEPS SIX second and ALCARI third. The 2.5 favourite SUPER FORTUNE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CARROLL STREET CP-/XB-/B1/TT1 0.56.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Whyte 7 6.4 1/2
2 1 CORDYCEPS SIX B C L Chau · R Gibson 13 2.8 1/2
3 4 ALCARI C Wong · P F Yiu 14 20.0 2
4 10 SUPER FORTUNE CP1/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 2.5 2-1/4
5 7 RUN RUN COOL B/H1 H Bentley · F C Lor 5 17.0 2-1/4
6 6 KUMASI C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 37.0 2-3/4
7 5 SPECIAL M B/TT V Borges · J Size 1 22.0 3
8 14 FANTASY B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 6 81.0 3-1/4
9 3 METRO WARRIOR B L Ferraris · D A Hayes 2 21.0 3-1/2
10 12 STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 11 73.0 4-1/4
11 11 TURIN WARRIOR B1/XB1 R Maia · R Gibson 3 136.0 5
12 13 TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 59.0 5-1/4
13 9 SERGEANT PEPPER CP1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 12 30.0 6
14 8 PROSECCO M L Yeung · W Y So 4 208.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CARROLL STREET2. CORDYCEPS SIX+0.5L3. ALCARI+2L4. SUPER FORTUNE+2.25L5. RUN RUN COOL+2.25L6. KUMASI+2.75L7. SPECIAL M+3L8. FANTASY+3.25L9. METRO WARRIOR+3.5L10. STAR OF YUEN LONG+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FORTUNE (37.0%) finished 4th — the winner CARROLL STREET was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SUPER FORTUNE 37.0% 2.71 4
2 1 CORDYCEPS SIX 16.2% 6.17 2
3 5 SPECIAL M 13.1% 7.62 7
4 3 METRO WARRIOR 7.4% 13.58 9
5 4 ALCARI 4.7% 21.43 3
6 13 TRIPLE TRIPLE 3.8% 26.41 12
7 6 KUMASI 3.6% 27.61 6
8 2 CARROLL STREET 3.3% 30.41 1
9 7 RUN RUN COOL 2.9% 35.07 5
10 9 SERGEANT PEPPER 2.7% 37.52 13
11 14 FANTASY 2.1% 47.13 8
12 11 TURIN WARRIOR 1.5% 65.55 11
13 12 STAR OF YUEN LONG 1.2% 80.41 10
14 8 PROSECCO 0.6% 173.16 14
SUPER FORTUNECORDYCEPS SIXSPECIAL MMETRO WARRIORALCARITRIPLE TRIPLEKUMASICARROLL STREET — wonRUN RUN COOLSERGEANT PEPPERFANTASYTURIN WARRIORSTAR OF YUEN LONGPROSECCO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64

PLACE

1 12

2 19

4 39.5

QUINELLA

1,2 95.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 35

1,4 71.5

2,4 145

FORECAST

2,1 230

TIERCE

2,1,4 1,966

TRIO

1,2,4 389

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 161

QUARTET

2,1,4,10 5,197

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 40

A1

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 10.5

2/2 62