Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ALL BEAUTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with PERFECT PAIR second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite MASTER HERO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 5.4 3/4
2 11 PERFECT PAIR Led early SR H N Wong · K H Ting 7 25.0 3/4
3 2 MASTER HERO XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 2.3 3
4 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY M L Yeung · K L Man 1 84.0 3
5 1 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Hall 14 8.1 4-1/4
6 5 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 6.9 5-1/2
7 4 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 9 70.0 6
8 13 APACHE PASS BO/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 105.0 6
9 3 THE HULK K H Chan · C Fownes 11 46.0 8-3/4
10 14 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR Closed strongly CP V Borges · P F Yiu 12 6.1 9-1/4
11 6 LUCKY GOLD B1/H1 R Maia · K W Lui 8 43.0 9-3/4
12 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM XB H W Lai · Y S Tsui 3 117.0 12-1/2
13 10 LIFELINE VISION B M Chadwick · D A Hayes 10 33.0 13-1/4
14 8 BORN THE SAME DAY H1 M F Poon · K W Lui 6 86.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL BEAUTY2. PERFECT PAIR+0.75L3. MASTER HERO+3L4. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+3L5. MALDIVES+4.25L6. HORSESAIN BOLT+5.5L7. BEAUTY NOVA+6L8. APACHE PASS+6L9. THE HULK+8.75L10. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (37.1%) finished 3rd — the winner ALL BEAUTY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MASTER HERO 37.1% 2.69 3
2 1 MALDIVES 10.6% 9.43 5
3 12 ALL BEAUTY 10.3% 9.68 1
4 5 HORSESAIN BOLT 9.2% 10.89 6
5 14 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 8.8% 11.32 10
6 4 BEAUTY NOVA 4.6% 21.90 7
7 8 BORN THE SAME DAY 3.7% 26.75 14
8 3 THE HULK 3.7% 27.31 9
9 6 LUCKY GOLD 3.1% 32.67 11
10 10 LIFELINE VISION 3.0% 33.24 13
11 11 PERFECT PAIR 2.9% 34.48 2
12 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.4% 72.42 12
13 13 APACHE PASS 1.1% 93.85 8
14 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 0.5% 195.55 4
MASTER HEROMALDIVESALL BEAUTY — wonHORSESAIN BOLTPLEASANT ENDEAVORBEAUTY NOVABORN THE SAME DAYTHE HULKLUCKY GOLDLIFELINE VISIONPERFECT PAIRARTHUR'S KINGDOMAPACHE PASSCIRCUIT MIGHTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 54.5

PLACE

2 11.5

11 50.5

12 18.5

QUINELLA

11,12 540

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 100

2,12 30

11,12 169.5

FORECAST

12,11 1,027

TIERCE

12,11,2 3,127

TRIO

2,11,12 425

FIRST 4

2,9,11,12 5,522

QUARTET

12,11,2,9 121,769

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 26

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,11,12 8,858

9TH DOUBLE

2/11 163.5

2/12 235

SIX UP

4/3/10/2/2/12 146,738

4,10/3,6/10,14/2,11/1,2/11,12 3,792

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

2/2/11 418

2/2/12 648