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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 5.4 3/4
2 0 PERFECT PAIR Led early SR H N Wong · K H Ting 7 25.0 3/4
3 0 MASTER HERO XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 2.3 3
4 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY M L Yeung · K L Man 1 84.0 3
5 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Hall 14 8.1 4-1/4
6 0 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 6.9 5-1/2
7 0 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 9 70.0 6
8 0 APACHE PASS BO/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 105.0 6
9 0 THE HULK K H Chan · C Fownes 11 46.0 8-3/4
10 0 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR Closed strongly CP V Borges · P F Yiu 12 6.1 9-1/4
11 0 LUCKY GOLD B1/H1 R Maia · K W Lui 8 43.0 9-3/4
12 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM XB H W Lai · Y S Tsui 3 117.0 12-1/2
13 0 LIFELINE VISION B M Chadwick · D A Hayes 10 33.0 13-1/4
14 0 BORN THE SAME DAY H1 M F Poon · K W Lui 6 86.0 19-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ALL BEAUTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with PERFECT PAIR second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite MASTER HERO finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL BEAUTY—2. PERFECT PAIR+0.75L3. MASTER HERO+3L4. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+3L5. MALDIVES+4.25L6. HORSESAIN BOLT+5.5L7. BEAUTY NOVA+6L8. APACHE PASS+6L9. THE HULK+8.75L10. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (37.1%) finished 3rd — the winner ALL BEAUTY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MASTER HERO 37.1% 2.69 3
2 0 MALDIVES 10.6% 9.43 5
3 0 ALL BEAUTY 10.3% 9.68 1
4 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 9.2% 10.89 6
5 0 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 8.8% 11.32 10
6 0 BEAUTY NOVA 4.6% 21.90 7
7 0 BORN THE SAME DAY 3.7% 26.75 14
8 0 THE HULK 3.7% 27.31 9
9 0 LUCKY GOLD 3.1% 32.67 11
10 0 LIFELINE VISION 3.0% 33.24 13
11 0 PERFECT PAIR 2.9% 34.48 2
12 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.4% 72.42 12
13 0 APACHE PASS 1.1% 93.85 8
14 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 0.5% 195.55 4
MASTER HEROMALDIVESALL BEAUTY — wonHORSESAIN BOLTPLEASANT ENDEAVORBEAUTY NOVABORN THE SAME DAYTHE HULKLUCKY GOLDLIFELINE VISIONPERFECT PAIRARTHUR'S KINGDOMAPACHE PASSCIRCUIT MIGHTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 54.5

PLACE

2 11.5

11 50.5

12 18.5

QUINELLA

11,12 540

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 100

2,12 30

11,12 169.5

FORECAST

12,11 1,027

TIERCE

12,11,2 3,127

TRIO

2,11,12 425

FIRST 4

2,9,11,12 5,522

QUARTET

12,11,2,9 121,769

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 26

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,11,12 8,858

9TH DOUBLE

2/11 163.5

2/12 235

SIX UP

4/3/10/2/2/12 146,738

4,10/3,6/10,14/2,11/1,2/11,12 3,792

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

2/2/11 418

2/2/12 648