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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 15:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GALAXY WITNESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with EL JEFE second and FORTE third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GALAXY WITNESS 0.57.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 3 2.6 3/4
2 10 EL JEFE XB/B2 K C Leung · C H Yip 11 6.7 3/4
3 2 FORTE XB/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 4.6 1-3/4
4 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC M Chadwick · R Gibson 7 27.0 4-1/2
5 8 BALTIC WHISPER TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 9 34.0 5-1/4
6 6 SUPER CLASS L Ferraris · A T Millard 8 37.0 5-1/2
7 5 SCOTCH TYCOON H1 R Maia · K W Lui 14 14.0 8
8 1 AMAZING ROCKY H C Wong · T P Yung 1 15.0 8-1/2
9 14 SIMPLE DOCTRINE B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 6 212.0 9
10 3 SPARKLING DOLPHIN K H Chan · Y S Tsui 5 14.0 11-3/4
11 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 9.2 13-1/4
12 7 THE GOOD DEAL M L Yeung · W Y So 2 80.0 15-1/4
13 11 BEAUTY CHEERS V Borges · J Size 10 24.0 16-1/4
14 13 INTENTION V/TT H W Lai · L Ho 13 187.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY WITNESS2. EL JEFE+0.75L3. FORTE+1.75L4. CARRY THE DIAMOND+4.5L5. BALTIC WHISPER+5.25L6. SUPER CLASS+5.5L7. SCOTCH TYCOON+8L8. AMAZING ROCKY+8.5L9. SIMPLE DOCTRINE+9L10. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GALAXY WITNESS (33.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GALAXY WITNESS 33.5% 2.98 1
2 3 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 17.4% 5.76 10
3 12 CARRY THE DIAMOND 8.5% 11.83 4
4 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN 8.4% 11.88 11
5 5 SCOTCH TYCOON 4.6% 21.95 7
6 1 AMAZING ROCKY 4.5% 21.98 8
7 2 FORTE 4.4% 22.54 3
8 6 SUPER CLASS 4.2% 23.78 6
9 8 BALTIC WHISPER 3.6% 27.53 5
10 11 BEAUTY CHEERS 3.5% 28.67 13
11 10 EL JEFE 3.4% 29.34 2
12 7 THE GOOD DEAL 2.7% 36.71 12
13 14 SIMPLE DOCTRINE 0.6% 157.70 9
14 13 INTENTION 0.6% 159.45 14
GALAXY WITNESS — wonSPARKLING DOLPHINCARRY THE DIAMONDCIRCUIT SEVENSCOTCH TYCOONAMAZING ROCKYFORTESUPER CLASSBALTIC WHISPERBEAUTY CHEERSEL JEFETHE GOOD DEALSIMPLE DOCTRINEINTENTION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 26

PLACE

2 15.5

4 15

10 19.5

QUINELLA

4,10 87

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 35.5

2,10 61

4,10 38

FORECAST

4,10 135

TIERCE

4,10,2 596

TRIO

2,4,10 129

FIRST 4

2,4,10,12 648

QUARTET

4,10,2,12 8,620

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE

11/4 268.5

11/10 70