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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 14:37

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. UNTOLD RICHES, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by 2-1/2, with COUNTRY BOY second and GOLDEN EMPIRE third. The 2.5 favourite EN POINTE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 UNTOLD RICHES H 1.10.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 10.0 2-1/2
2 5 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 9 3.6 2-1/2
3 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE R Maia · K W Lui 10 71.0 2-3/4
4 2 EN POINTE C Y Ho · F C Lor 5 2.5 3-1/2
5 10 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 10.0 3-1/2
6 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE K H Chan · C W Chang 11 35.0 4-1/4
7 8 SIXTH GENERATION B Shinn · C H Yip 1 41.0 4-1/2
8 12 SCIENCE PATCH B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 8 85.0 4-1/2
9 7 HANDSOME VEGGIE A Hamelin · D A Hayes 14 24.0 5
10 1 STREET SCREAM H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 13 10.0 5-1/2
11 13 E BROTHER CP/TT L Ferraris · K L Man 7 19.0 5-3/4
12 3 ICE LEGEND B-/H/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 2 18.0 6-1/2
13 14 ABOVE ALL H/XB M F Poon · A T Millard 4 48.0 7-3/4
14 4 ALL RICHES K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 153.0 8-1/4
0 BELLA BABY V Borges · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNTOLD RICHES2. COUNTRY BOY+2.5L3. GOLDEN EMPIRE+2.75L4. EN POINTE+3.5L5. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+3.5L6. AMIGOS GIGGLE+4.25L7. SIXTH GENERATION+4.5L8. SCIENCE PATCH+4.5L9. HANDSOME VEGGIE+5L10. STREET SCREAM+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EN POINTE (32.3%) finished 4th — the winner UNTOLD RICHES was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 EN POINTE 32.3% 3.09 4
2 5 COUNTRY BOY 20.7% 4.84 2
3 13 E BROTHER 9.1% 11.01 11
4 10 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 6.9% 14.56 5
5 3 ICE LEGEND 6.3% 16.00 12
6 1 STREET SCREAM 5.2% 19.08 10
7 9 AMIGOS GIGGLE 4.2% 23.66 6
8 11 UNTOLD RICHES 3.6% 27.85 1
9 8 SIXTH GENERATION 3.1% 32.61 7
10 7 HANDSOME VEGGIE 2.6% 38.33 9
11 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE 2.5% 39.62 3
12 14 ABOVE ALL 1.4% 72.26 13
13 12 SCIENCE PATCH 1.2% 82.11 8
14 4 ALL RICHES 0.9% 107.40 14
EN POINTECOUNTRY BOYE BROTHERPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNICE LEGENDSTREET SCREAMAMIGOS GIGGLEUNTOLD RICHES — wonSIXTH GENERATIONHANDSOME VEGGIEGOLDEN EMPIREABOVE ALLSCIENCE PATCHALL RICHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 106.5

PLACE

5 15.5

6 177.5

11 26

QUINELLA

5,11 220

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 382

5,11 82

6,11 1,008.5

FORECAST

11,5 513

TIERCE

11,5,6 23,722

TRIO

5,6,11 3,924

FIRST 4

2,5,6,11 2,090

QUARTET

11,5,6,2 77,007

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,9/5,6,11 112,178

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 35

A3

3RD DOUBLE

5/5 13.5

5/11 170