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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly 1.23.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · T P Yung 13 14.0 1-1/4
2 0 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly J Moreira · D A Hayes 3 2.2 1-1/4
3 0 SUPER KIN TT K H Chan · C Fownes 2 11.0 1-1/2
4 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip 6 40.0 2-1/4
5 0 INGENIOUS FELLOW Closed strongly PC/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 8 132.0 2-3/4
6 0 AMAZEMENT B/TT1 H Bentley · J Size 1 18.0 3-1/4
7 0 AFTER ME Closed strongly B- H W Lai · L Ho 5 58.0 3-3/4
8 0 SPLENDID TIMING Closed strongly B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 14 57.0 4
9 0 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 10.0 4
10 0 ALEE KING PRAWN Led early B/TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 9 12.0 4-1/4
11 0 GOODMANSHIP B-/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte 11 8.3 4-1/4
12 0 BIG BANG BONG B C Wong · C W Chang 4 25.0 4-1/2
13 0 SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 10 10.0 5-3/4
14 0 RED BRICK GLORY XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 21.0 7-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with SUNNY BABY second and SUPER KIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE—2. SUNNY BABY+1.25L3. SUPER KIN+1.5L4. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+2.25L5. INGENIOUS FELLOW+2.75L6. AMAZEMENT+3.25L7. AFTER ME+3.75L8. SPLENDID TIMING+4L9. FOX CHEUNGER+4L10. ALEE KING PRAWN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (24.5%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON PRIDE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUNNY BABY 24.5% 4.07 2
2 0 SUPER KIN 12.0% 8.35 3
3 0 FOX CHEUNGER 9.2% 10.84 9
4 0 SPARKLING STAR 8.8% 11.35 13
5 0 AMAZEMENT 8.3% 11.99 6
6 0 GOODMANSHIP 7.7% 12.99 11
7 0 ALEE KING PRAWN 6.2% 16.16 10
8 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 5.2% 19.21 4
9 0 AFTER ME 4.6% 21.71 7
10 0 DRAGON PRIDE 4.1% 24.51 1
11 0 BIG BANG BONG 3.1% 31.80 12
12 0 RED BRICK GLORY 3.1% 32.02 14
13 0 SPLENDID TIMING 1.8% 54.85 8
14 0 INGENIOUS FELLOW 1.2% 80.87 5
SUNNY BABYSUPER KINFOX CHEUNGERSPARKLING STARAMAZEMENTGOODMANSHIPALEE KING PRAWNGORGEOUS INHERITORAFTER MEDRAGON PRIDE — wonBIG BANG BONGRED BRICK GLORYSPLENDID TIMINGINGENIOUS FELLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 144

PLACE

4 13

10 25

13 44.5

QUINELLA

4,13 183.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 52

4,13 76.5

10,13 173.5

FORECAST

13,4 724

TIERCE

13,4,10 3,669

TRIO

4,10,13 452

FIRST 4

4,10,11,13 2,845

QUARTET

13,4,10,11 130,653

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/4 25

9/13 804

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 23

A1 —