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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with SUNNY BABY second and SUPER KIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly 1.23.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · T P Yung 13 14.0 1-1/4
2 4 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly J Moreira · D A Hayes 3 2.2 1-1/4
3 10 SUPER KIN TT K H Chan · C Fownes 2 11.0 1-1/2
4 11 GORGEOUS INHERITOR Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip 6 40.0 2-1/4
5 8 INGENIOUS FELLOW Closed strongly PC/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 8 132.0 2-3/4
6 3 AMAZEMENT B/TT1 H Bentley · J Size 1 18.0 3-1/4
7 9 AFTER ME Closed strongly B- H W Lai · L Ho 5 58.0 3-3/4
8 12 SPLENDID TIMING Closed strongly B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 14 57.0 4
9 5 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 10.0 4
10 2 ALEE KING PRAWN Led early B/TT1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 9 12.0 4-1/4
11 6 GOODMANSHIP B-/TT B Shinn · D J Whyte 11 8.3 4-1/4
12 14 BIG BANG BONG B C Wong · C W Chang 4 25.0 4-1/2
13 7 SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 10 10.0 5-3/4
14 1 RED BRICK GLORY XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 21.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE2. SUNNY BABY+1.25L3. SUPER KIN+1.5L4. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+2.25L5. INGENIOUS FELLOW+2.75L6. AMAZEMENT+3.25L7. AFTER ME+3.75L8. SPLENDID TIMING+4L9. FOX CHEUNGER+4L10. ALEE KING PRAWN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (24.5%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON PRIDE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUNNY BABY 24.5% 4.07 2
2 10 SUPER KIN 12.0% 8.35 3
3 5 FOX CHEUNGER 9.2% 10.84 9
4 7 SPARKLING STAR 8.8% 11.35 13
5 3 AMAZEMENT 8.3% 11.99 6
6 6 GOODMANSHIP 7.7% 12.99 11
7 2 ALEE KING PRAWN 6.2% 16.16 10
8 11 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 5.2% 19.21 4
9 9 AFTER ME 4.6% 21.71 7
10 13 DRAGON PRIDE 4.1% 24.51 1
11 14 BIG BANG BONG 3.1% 31.80 12
12 1 RED BRICK GLORY 3.1% 32.02 14
13 12 SPLENDID TIMING 1.8% 54.85 8
14 8 INGENIOUS FELLOW 1.2% 80.87 5
SUNNY BABYSUPER KINFOX CHEUNGERSPARKLING STARAMAZEMENTGOODMANSHIPALEE KING PRAWNGORGEOUS INHERITORAFTER MEDRAGON PRIDE — wonBIG BANG BONGRED BRICK GLORYSPLENDID TIMINGINGENIOUS FELLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 144

PLACE

4 13

10 25

13 44.5

QUINELLA

4,13 183.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 52

4,13 76.5

10,13 173.5

FORECAST

13,4 724

TIERCE

13,4,10 3,669

TRIO

4,10,13 452

FIRST 4

4,10,11,13 2,845

QUARTET

13,4,10,11 130,653

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/4 25

9/13 804

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 23

A2