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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KASI FARASI Closed strongly TT 1.22.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 3 18.0 1-1/2
2 0 MILLENNIUM FALCON Closed strongly H C L Chau · T P Yung 7 4.3 1-1/2
3 0 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly H- K C Leung · K H Ting 5 36.0 1-1/2
4 0 PINS PRINCE Led early H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 12 2.1 2-1/4
5 0 RING BELLS Closed strongly A Hamelin · R Gibson 10 42.0 2-1/4
6 0 CHARGE ON Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 13.0 2-1/2
7 0 SOARING TOWER Closed strongly C Y Ho · W Y So 11 10.0 3
8 0 GO FOR TEA H Bentley · F C Lor 4 20.0 4-1/4
9 0 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 1 24.0 4-1/2
10 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B1/XB1 B Shinn · D J Whyte 14 141.0 5-3/4
11 0 SICOMORO M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 35.0 6-1/2
12 0 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC C Wong · P O'Sullivan 6 218.0 6-1/2
13 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 2 11.0 8-1/4
14 0 FANTASY SPRING H W Lai · Y S Tsui 13 215.0 9-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KASI FARASI, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/2, with MILLENNIUM FALCON second and GENERAL WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite PINS PRINCE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KASI FARASI—2. MILLENNIUM FALCON+1.5L3. GENERAL WINNER+1.5L4. PINS PRINCE+2.25L5. RING BELLS+2.25L6. CHARGE ON+2.5L7. SOARING TOWER+3L8. GO FOR TEA+4.25L9. LADY FIRST+4.5L10. WONDER YEARS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PINS PRINCE (41.5%) finished 4th — the winner KASI FARASI was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PINS PRINCE 41.5% 2.41 4
2 0 MILLENNIUM FALCON 14.8% 6.78 2
3 0 SOARING TOWER 8.6% 11.59 7
4 0 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 7.8% 12.82 13
5 0 LADY FIRST 5.8% 17.11 9
6 0 CHARGE ON 4.8% 20.97 6
7 0 GO FOR TEA 4.4% 22.85 8
8 0 RING BELLS 2.5% 40.22 5
9 0 KASI FARASI 2.4% 41.00 1
10 0 SICOMORO 2.1% 47.79 11
11 0 WONDER YEARS 2.1% 48.19 10
12 0 GENERAL WINNER 1.9% 51.69 3
13 0 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC 0.8% 123.72 12
14 0 FANTASY SPRING 0.4% 224.12 14
PINS PRINCEMILLENNIUM FALCONSOARING TOWERCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTLADY FIRSTCHARGE ONGO FOR TEARING BELLSKASI FARASI — wonSICOMOROWONDER YEARSGENERAL WINNERI BELIEVE IN MAGICFANTASY SPRING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 189.5

PLACE

3 47.5

6 16.5

7 87

QUINELLA

3,6 393.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 113

3,7 811.5

6,7 217.5

FORECAST

3,6 1,116

TIERCE

3,6,7 31,404

TRIO

3,6,7 5,105

FIRST 4

1,3,6,7 1,658

QUARTET

3,6,7,1 89,396

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 35.5

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 444

4/6 26

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,6,11/2,4,10/Any Combination 21,633