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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KASI FARASI, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/2, with MILLENNIUM FALCON second and GENERAL WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite PINS PRINCE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 KASI FARASI Closed strongly TT 1.22.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 3 18.0 1-1/2
2 6 MILLENNIUM FALCON Closed strongly H C L Chau · T P Yung 7 4.3 1-1/2
3 7 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly H- K C Leung · K H Ting 5 36.0 1-1/2
4 1 PINS PRINCE Led early H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 12 2.1 2-1/4
5 11 RING BELLS Closed strongly A Hamelin · R Gibson 10 42.0 2-1/4
6 5 CHARGE ON Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 13.0 2-1/2
7 2 SOARING TOWER Closed strongly C Y Ho · W Y So 11 10.0 3
8 8 GO FOR TEA H Bentley · F C Lor 4 20.0 4-1/4
9 13 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 1 24.0 4-1/2
10 9 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B1/XB1 B Shinn · D J Whyte 14 141.0 5-3/4
11 4 SICOMORO M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 35.0 6-1/2
12 14 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC C Wong · P O'Sullivan 6 218.0 6-1/2
13 10 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 2 11.0 8-1/4
14 12 FANTASY SPRING H W Lai · Y S Tsui 13 215.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KASI FARASI—2. MILLENNIUM FALCON+1.5L3. GENERAL WINNER+1.5L4. PINS PRINCE+2.25L5. RING BELLS+2.25L6. CHARGE ON+2.5L7. SOARING TOWER+3L8. GO FOR TEA+4.25L9. LADY FIRST+4.5L10. WONDER YEARS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PINS PRINCE (41.5%) finished 4th — the winner KASI FARASI was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PINS PRINCE 41.5% 2.41 4
2 6 MILLENNIUM FALCON 14.8% 6.78 2
3 2 SOARING TOWER 8.6% 11.59 7
4 10 COURAGEOUS KNIGHT 7.8% 12.82 13
5 13 LADY FIRST 5.8% 17.11 9
6 5 CHARGE ON 4.8% 20.97 6
7 8 GO FOR TEA 4.4% 22.85 8
8 11 RING BELLS 2.5% 40.22 5
9 3 KASI FARASI 2.4% 41.00 1
10 4 SICOMORO 2.1% 47.79 11
11 9 WONDER YEARS 2.1% 48.19 10
12 7 GENERAL WINNER 1.9% 51.69 3
13 14 I BELIEVE IN MAGIC 0.8% 123.72 12
14 12 FANTASY SPRING 0.4% 224.12 14
PINS PRINCEMILLENNIUM FALCONSOARING TOWERCOURAGEOUS KNIGHTLADY FIRSTCHARGE ONGO FOR TEARING BELLSKASI FARASI — wonSICOMOROWONDER YEARSGENERAL WINNERI BELIEVE IN MAGICFANTASY SPRING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 189.5

PLACE

3 47.5

6 16.5

7 87

QUINELLA

3,6 393.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 113

3,7 811.5

6,7 217.5

FORECAST

3,6 1,116

TIERCE

3,6,7 31,404

TRIO

3,6,7 5,105

FIRST 4

1,3,6,7 1,658

QUARTET

3,6,7,1 89,396

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 35.5

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 444

4/6 26

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,6,11/2,4,10/Any Combination 21,633

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