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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 16:08

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MINISTER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with NOTHING NEW second and SOLID IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite BEAUTY CHAMP finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 4.5 N
2 14 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly H/P/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 6.2 N
3 9 SOLID IMPACT L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 68.0 1-1/2
4 2 BEAUTY CHAMP TT1 J Moreira · C S Shum 3 3.8 2
5 13 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT V Borges · C Fownes 2 9.6 2-1/2
6 8 DUBLIN STAR Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 10 32.0 3-1/2
7 1 BE READY V- C Y Ho · F C Lor 8 26.0 5-1/2
8 12 MERCURIAL Led early H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 11 6.8 5-3/4
9 7 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · K W Lui 4 10.0 6
10 5 FABULOUSIO Closed strongly M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 43.0 6-1/2
11 6 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly E B Shinn · J Size 5 14.0 10-1/2
12 4 SMILING TIME CP/TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 53.0 13-1/2
13 11 LEWIS XB-/B/TT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 13 125.0 17-1/2
14 3 MR CROISSANT CP H N Wong · W Y So 7 62.0 82-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MINISTER2. NOTHING NEW+0.05L3. SOLID IMPACT+1.5L4. BEAUTY CHAMP+2L5. NEARLY FINE+2.5L6. DUBLIN STAR+3.5L7. BE READY+5.5L8. MERCURIAL+5.75L9. SUPER OASIS+6L10. FABULOUSIO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHAMP (25.8%) finished 4th — the winner PRIME MINISTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEAUTY CHAMP 25.8% 3.87 4
2 14 NOTHING NEW 11.8% 8.46 2
3 12 MERCURIAL 9.5% 10.55 8
4 13 NEARLY FINE 8.3% 12.11 5
5 10 PRIME MINISTER 8.0% 12.52 1
6 1 BE READY 8.0% 12.53 7
7 8 DUBLIN STAR 5.7% 17.54 6
8 6 HEZA BEAUTY 5.4% 18.51 11
9 7 SUPER OASIS 5.3% 18.82 9
10 5 FABULOUSIO 4.5% 22.03 10
11 9 SOLID IMPACT 2.6% 38.02 3
12 4 SMILING TIME 1.9% 52.30 12
13 11 LEWIS 1.7% 60.25 13
14 3 MR CROISSANT 1.5% 67.24 14
BEAUTY CHAMPNOTHING NEWMERCURIALNEARLY FINEPRIME MINISTER — wonBE READYDUBLIN STARHEZA BEAUTYSUPER OASISFABULOUSIOSOLID IMPACTSMILING TIMELEWISMR CROISSANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 45

PLACE

9 142.5

10 19

14 23.5

QUINELLA

10,14 142

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 422.5

9,14 600

10,14 52

FORECAST

10,14 280

TIERCE

10,14,9 9,678

TRIO

9,10,14 1,899

FIRST 4

2,9,10,14 4,547

QUARTET

10,14,9,2 91,009

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,7/9,10,14 1,663,060

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3

A1

6TH DOUBLE

3/10 1,291.5

3/14 237.5