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Sha Tin · 2021-12-27 · 16:08

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 4.5 N
2 0 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly H/P/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 6.2 N
3 0 SOLID IMPACT L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 68.0 1-1/2
4 0 BEAUTY CHAMP TT1 J Moreira · C S Shum 3 3.8 2
5 0 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT V Borges · C Fownes 2 9.6 2-1/2
6 0 DUBLIN STAR Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 10 32.0 3-1/2
7 0 BE READY V- C Y Ho · F C Lor 8 26.0 5-1/2
8 0 MERCURIAL Led early H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 11 6.8 5-3/4
9 0 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · K W Lui 4 10.0 6
10 0 FABULOUSIO Closed strongly M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 43.0 6-1/2
11 0 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly E B Shinn · J Size 5 14.0 10-1/2
12 0 SMILING TIME CP/TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 53.0 13-1/2
13 0 LEWIS XB-/B/TT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 13 125.0 17-1/2
14 0 MR CROISSANT CP H N Wong · W Y So 7 62.0 82-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MINISTER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with NOTHING NEW second and SOLID IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite BEAUTY CHAMP finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MINISTER—2. NOTHING NEW+0.05L3. SOLID IMPACT+1.5L4. BEAUTY CHAMP+2L5. NEARLY FINE+2.5L6. DUBLIN STAR+3.5L7. BE READY+5.5L8. MERCURIAL+5.75L9. SUPER OASIS+6L10. FABULOUSIO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHAMP (25.8%) finished 4th — the winner PRIME MINISTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY CHAMP 25.8% 3.87 4
2 0 NOTHING NEW 11.8% 8.46 2
3 0 MERCURIAL 9.5% 10.55 8
4 0 NEARLY FINE 8.3% 12.11 5
5 0 PRIME MINISTER 8.0% 12.52 1
6 0 BE READY 8.0% 12.53 7
7 0 DUBLIN STAR 5.7% 17.54 6
8 0 HEZA BEAUTY 5.4% 18.51 11
9 0 SUPER OASIS 5.3% 18.82 9
10 0 FABULOUSIO 4.5% 22.03 10
11 0 SOLID IMPACT 2.6% 38.02 3
12 0 SMILING TIME 1.9% 52.30 12
13 0 LEWIS 1.7% 60.25 13
14 0 MR CROISSANT 1.5% 67.24 14
BEAUTY CHAMPNOTHING NEWMERCURIALNEARLY FINEPRIME MINISTER — wonBE READYDUBLIN STARHEZA BEAUTYSUPER OASISFABULOUSIOSOLID IMPACTSMILING TIMELEWISMR CROISSANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 45

PLACE

9 142.5

10 19

14 23.5

QUINELLA

10,14 142

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 422.5

9,14 600

10,14 52

FORECAST

10,14 280

TIERCE

10,14,9 9,678

TRIO

9,10,14 1,899

FIRST 4

2,9,10,14 4,547

QUARTET

10,14,9,2 91,009

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,7/9,10,14 1,663,060

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3 —

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

3/10 1,291.5

3/14 237.5