沙田 · 2024-12-22 · 07:45
第 6場
2024-12-22沙田第6場，Class 4，途程2000米。由H Bowman策騎、C S Shum訓練的JOYFUL PROSPERITY勝出，贏出3/4。SOARING BRONCO獲得亞軍；SERANGOON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.9倍大熱門CHARITY GAIN跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY 後段發力 B/TT 2.03.45 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 8 | 5.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO 後段發力 TT H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 4 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SERANGOON 後段發力 CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 13 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | AFFORDABLE 後段發力 B/TT A Pouchin · D A Hayes | A Pouchin | D A Hayes | 12 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN 後段發力 XB/TT J McDonald · D Eustace | J McDonald | D Eustace | 5 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPY HERO B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 9 | 40.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | JUBILATION V M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | DRAGON STAR 早段領放 XB/V2 A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 3 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | PERFECT PAIRING B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | CONFRINGO CP-/V1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 7 | 60.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | FOREVER FOLKS B B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 10 | 61.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET PC-/H/XB/B1/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 6 | 21.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 18.4% | 5.45 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN | 17.2% | 5.81 | 5 |
| 3 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO | 12.1% | 8.26 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | JUBILATION | 10.3% | 9.68 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | DRAGON STAR | 10.2% | 9.85 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 10.1% | 9.87 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | SERANGOON | 4.1% | 24.34 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | AFFORDABLE | 3.8% | 26.08 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | PERFECT PAIRING | 3.4% | 29.47 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | HAPPY HERO | 3.1% | 32.50 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | FOREVER FOLKS | 3.0% | 33.11 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 3.0% | 33.35 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | CONFRINGO | 1.3% | 77.10 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 55
PLACE
2 21
3 39
13 28.5
QUINELLA
2,13 207.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 111.5
2,13 73.5
3,13 190.5
FORECAST
2,13 438
TIERCE
2,13,3 4,634
TRIO
2,3,13 994
FIRST 4
2,3,5,13 4,317
QUARTET
2,13,3,5 79,108
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,5/2,3,13 36,541
5TH DOUBLE
5/2 566.5
5/13 220
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,7,13/Any Combination/Any Combination 2,067