沙田 · 2024-12-22 · 09:20
第 9場
2024-12-22沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1400米。由J McDonald策騎、P C Ng訓練的JOHANNES BRAHMS勝出，贏出1/2。BEAUTY CRESCENT獲得亞軍；GLORIOUS SUCCESS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOHANNES BRAHMS 後段發力 1.21.48 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J McDonald · P C Ng | J McDonald | P C Ng | 2 | 2.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | BEAUTY CRESCENT 後段發力 TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS 後段發力 B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 1 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | LUCY IN THE SKY H Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 11 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 5 | 14 | KA YING SUPERB 早段領放 H/XB M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 12 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | BLESSED NATION 後段發力 XB/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 4 | 154.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | FANTASTIC FUN 後段發力 XB/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 6 | 77.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | CASA ROCHESTER 後段發力 L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 7 | 43.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BUNDLE AWARD E1 B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 13 | 42.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | STORMI 後段發力 TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 14 | 71.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | SUPERB BOY TT A Pouchin · K W Lui | A Pouchin | K W Lui | 5 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | EASON A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 8 | 27.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | KEMPES 後段發力 H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 18.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | SMART TRIO XB1/TT1 M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 9 | 153.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOHANNES BRAHMS | 27.0% | 3.71 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | LUCY IN THE SKY | 19.8% | 5.05 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | GLORIOUS SUCCESS | 13.8% | 7.25 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 8.9% | 11.22 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | KEMPES | 6.2% | 16.07 | 13 |
| 6 | 14 | KA YING SUPERB | 5.1% | 19.52 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | SUPERB BOY | 3.3% | 30.09 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | CASA ROCHESTER | 3.1% | 32.65 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | EASON | 2.8% | 35.24 | 12 |
| 10 | 13 | FANTASTIC FUN | 2.8% | 36.03 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | STORMI | 2.4% | 41.91 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | SMART TRIO | 2.1% | 48.38 | 14 |
| 13 | 7 | BUNDLE AWARD | 2.0% | 49.69 | 9 |
| 14 | 9 | BLESSED NATION | 0.7% | 145.53 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 28
PLACE
3 14
4 15.5
11 19.5
QUINELLA
3,4 65.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 27.5
3,11 42.5
4,11 62.5
FORECAST
3,4 116
TIERCE
3,4,11 414
TRIO
3,4,11 113
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 122
QUARTET
3,4,11,2 1,586
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
1/3 56
1/4 30