Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 1
Class 5
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
10 runners
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FORTUNE HAPPINESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with EXPONENTS second and CORRE RAPIDO third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B1 1.09.52 J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 1 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | EXPONENTS V B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 2 | 3.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO B Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 6 | 4.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | RUN MOOCHI B-/V1 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 5 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | DATING H-/B/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 3 | 53.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | MUTUAL JOY B/H K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 21.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | KING MORTAR TT- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 4 | 17.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FIRE AND GOLD TT- K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 39.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPREME WITNESS B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 10 | 11.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | WINNERS BROTHER B H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 9 | 75.0 | 18-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick FORTUNE HAPPINESS (25.8%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 25.8% | 3.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | EXPONENTS | 18.7% | 5.35 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | SUPREME WITNESS | 15.9% | 6.30 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO | 12.4% | 8.06 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | RUN MOOCHI | 10.3% | 9.68 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | FIRE AND GOLD | 4.9% | 20.44 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | DATING | 4.5% | 22.04 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | MUTUAL JOY | 2.7% | 37.55 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | KING MORTAR | 2.4% | 41.44 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | WINNERS BROTHER | 2.4% | 41.88 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.