Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 3
Class 5
GOOD TO FIRM
1400m
Course C
14 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOTUS BREEZE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with CAPTAIN BOSS second and BLAZING PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite BIG BULLY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LOTUS BREEZE Closed strongly B/XB/TT 1.21.93 C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 8 | 6.5 | SH |
| 2 | 13 | CAPTAIN BOSS Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 10 | 30.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly A Domeyer · D E Ferraris | A Domeyer | D E Ferraris | 5 | 46.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | FLYING NOBLE Closed strongly B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 9 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | BIG BULLY Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 3.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | NATURAL FLARE Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | GALLANT SPIRIT Closed strongly B-/V1 H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 14 | 198.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 14 | MONEY MARSHAL B/H L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | ASSOCIATION FANS Closed strongly H/SR A Sanna · L Ho | A Sanna | L Ho | 13 | 82.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | JOY MASTER TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 4.2 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER Led early B1/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 11 | 44.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | ENORMOUS HONOUR Closed strongly V1 M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 3 | 17.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER B1/TT- U Rispoli · K W Lui | U Rispoli | K W Lui | 2 | 74.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 14 | 11 | SUREWIN B- N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 12 | 31.0 | 21-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick BIG BULLY (22.6%) finished 5th — the winner LOTUS BREEZE was rated #4.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BIG BULLY | 22.6% | 4.43 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | JOY MASTER | 21.5% | 4.65 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | SUREWIN | 9.7% | 10.29 | 14 |
| 4 | 4 | LOTUS BREEZE | 7.9% | 12.63 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | ENORMOUS HONOUR | 7.3% | 13.62 | 12 |
| 6 | 14 | MONEY MARSHAL | 6.7% | 14.92 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 5.4% | 18.36 | 3 |
| 8 | 13 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 4.0% | 24.70 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 4.0% | 25.12 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | FLYING NOBLE | 4.0% | 25.18 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 2.0% | 50.47 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | NATURAL FLARE | 1.8% | 57.12 | 6 |
| 13 | 9 | GALLANT SPIRIT | 1.6% | 61.34 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER | 1.4% | 71.65 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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