Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 9
Class 3
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
11 runners
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SILVER FIG, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 3, with UTOPIA LIFE second and WINNER SUPREME third. The 2.8 favourite WINNER SUPREME finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SILVER FIG 1.08.10 J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 4 | 3.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | UTOPIA LIFE B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 22.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | WINNER SUPREME B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 1 | 2.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | MR GENUINE B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | CASA DE FORCA TT- G van Niekerk · A S Cruz | G van Niekerk | A S Cruz | 10 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | MOMENTUM GALAXY H1/P1 M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 9 | 255.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | MASSIVE POCKET XB L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 5 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | JOYFUL MOMENTS B K H Chan · R Gibson | K H Chan | R Gibson | 8 | 25.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 9.4 | 13-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | ALCARI B A Domeyer · P F Yiu | A Domeyer | P F Yiu | 6 | 15.0 | 21-1/4 |
| — | 2 | COBY OPPA K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick SILVER FIG (38.1%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SILVER FIG | 38.1% | 2.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | YOUNG LEGEND | 11.1% | 8.98 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | WINNER SUPREME | 11.0% | 9.11 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | ALCARI | 10.6% | 9.46 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | CASA DE FORCA | 6.5% | 15.50 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | MR GENUINE | 5.5% | 18.05 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | JOYFUL MOMENTS | 5.2% | 19.35 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | UTOPIA LIFE | 4.3% | 23.49 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | MASSIVE POCKET | 3.6% | 27.80 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | MEGA HEART | 3.2% | 30.94 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 1.0% | 103.09 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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Race 10 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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