Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 4
Class 4
GOOD TO FIRM
1200m
Course C
12 runners
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BIG FORTUNE, ridden by A Sanna and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-3/4, with AURORA PEGASUS second and MASTER ALBERT third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE B 1.08.81 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 2 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | AURORA PEGASUS TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 8 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SHOUSON B N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 1 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | FARM BUMPER K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 45.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | MOMENTUM HAPPY M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 9.5 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P1 B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 3 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 7 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | SUPREME PLUS XB/B1/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 5.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | GALAXY RACER M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 10 | 243.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPERB AGILITY H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 4 | 124.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT G van Niekerk · A S Cruz | G van Niekerk | A S Cruz | 9 | 7.6 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 0 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick AURORA PEGASUS (22.9%) finished 2nd — the winner BIG FORTUNE was rated #3.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AURORA PEGASUS | 22.9% | 4.37 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SUPREME PLUS | 21.0% | 4.76 | 9 |
| 3 | 3 | BIG FORTUNE | 9.5% | 10.50 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 9.3% | 10.71 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | FARM BUMPER | 8.7% | 11.45 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT | 6.2% | 16.01 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST | 5.3% | 18.83 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | SHOUSON | 4.8% | 20.80 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 4.8% | 21.05 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 3.6% | 27.71 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPERB AGILITY | 2.8% | 36.11 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | GALAXY RACER | 1.0% | 102.00 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 3
Race 5 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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