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Sha Tin · 2019-09-08

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND Wire to wire B-/TT 1.34.59 K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 3.8 2
2 0 SUCH A HAPPINESS Closed strongly J Moreira · T P Yung 6 2.0 2
3 0 SUNNY POWER V U Rispoli · K W Lui 1 8.9 3-3/4
4 0 NEW ELEGANCE XB Z Purton · F C Lor 7 7.9 3-3/4
5 0 INDIGENOUS STAR K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 11.0 3-3/4
6 0 SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT C Schofield · C Fownes 3 40.0 4-1/2
7 0 AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho 5 12.0 6
8 0 GARLIC YEAH B A Sanna · C H Yip 2 88.0 7
9 0 THE FULL BLOOM M F Poon · C H Yip 8 79.0 7-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with SUCH A HAPPINESS second and SUNNY POWER third. The winner led throughout. The 2.0 favourite SUCH A HAPPINESS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA LEGEND—2. SUCH A HAPPINESS+2L3. SUNNY POWER+3.75L4. NEW ELEGANCE+3.75L5. INDIGENOUS STAR+3.75L6. SPEEDY WALLY+4.5L7. AMAZING AGILITY+6L8. GARLIC YEAH+7L9. THE FULL BLOOM+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick NEW ELEGANCE (17.8%) finished 4th — the winner CALIFORNIA LEGEND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 NEW ELEGANCE 17.8% 5.62 4
2 0 INDIGENOUS STAR 17.6% 5.68 5
3 0 SUCH A HAPPINESS 15.2% 6.56 2
4 0 SUNNY POWER 13.1% 7.66 3
5 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 12.1% 8.28 1
6 0 SPEEDY WALLY 11.0% 9.08 6
7 0 THE FULL BLOOM 7.5% 13.36 9
8 0 AMAZING AGILITY 3.3% 30.60 7
9 0 GARLIC YEAH 2.4% 41.07 8
NEW ELEGANCEINDIGENOUS STARSUCH A HAPPINESSSUNNY POWERCALIFORNIA LEGEND — wonSPEEDY WALLYTHE FULL BLOOMAMAZING AGILITYGARLIC YEAH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.