Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 2
Class 4
GOOD
1600m
Course C
9 runners
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with SUCH A HAPPINESS second and SUNNY POWER third. The winner led throughout. The 2.0 favourite SUCH A HAPPINESS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND Wire to wire B-/TT 1.34.59 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | SUCH A HAPPINESS Closed strongly J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 6 | 2.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | SUNNY POWER V U Rispoli · K W Lui | U Rispoli | K W Lui | 1 | 8.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | NEW ELEGANCE XB Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 7 | 7.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 3 | 40.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 5 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | GARLIC YEAH B A Sanna · C H Yip | A Sanna | C H Yip | 2 | 88.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | THE FULL BLOOM M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 79.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick NEW ELEGANCE (17.8%) finished 4th — the winner CALIFORNIA LEGEND was rated #5.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NEW ELEGANCE | 17.8% | 5.62 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 17.6% | 5.68 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | SUCH A HAPPINESS | 15.2% | 6.56 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | SUNNY POWER | 13.1% | 7.66 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 12.1% | 8.28 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | SPEEDY WALLY | 11.0% | 9.08 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | THE FULL BLOOM | 7.5% | 13.36 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING AGILITY | 3.3% | 30.60 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | GARLIC YEAH | 2.4% | 41.07 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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Race 3 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m
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