Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 5
Class 4
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
12 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. DOLLAR REWARD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with GUNNAR second and TOUCH OF LUCK third. The 3.4 favourite TOUCH OF LUCK finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DOLLAR REWARD P2/TT 1.09.47 J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 4 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | GUNNAR N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 9 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | TOUCH OF LUCK CP-/PC2 Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 2 | 3.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | PROMISE KEPT XB/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 11 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | GENEROUS HEART H-/XB/P2 H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 1 | 6.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SKY TREASURE H B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 12 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | JOYFUL CONTENDER CP M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 7 | 21.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | TURF BRILLIANT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 3 | 309.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | KELMIMI WINS A Sanna · C H Yip | A Sanna | C H Yip | 8 | 107.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | EVER STRONG P H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 10 | 50.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick TOUCH OF LUCK (32.6%) finished 3rd — the winner DOLLAR REWARD was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 32.6% | 3.07 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | DOLLAR REWARD | 18.7% | 5.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | GUNNAR | 16.5% | 6.05 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR | 7.8% | 12.90 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | GENEROUS HEART | 4.5% | 22.46 | 6 |
| 6 | 12 | JOYFUL CONTENDER | 3.6% | 27.73 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | PROMISE KEPT | 3.5% | 28.67 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | SKY TREASURE | 3.1% | 32.46 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR | 3.1% | 32.63 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | EVER STRONG | 2.9% | 34.34 | 12 |
| 11 | 2 | KELMIMI WINS | 2.0% | 50.01 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | TURF BRILLIANT | 1.8% | 54.47 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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