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Sha Tin · 2019-09-08

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DOLLAR REWARD P2/TT 1.09.47 J Moreira · C S Shum 4 11.0 1/2
2 0 GUNNAR N Callan · C Fownes 9 3.6 1/2
3 0 TOUCH OF LUCK CP-/PC2 Z Purton · J Moore 2 3.4 1/2
4 0 PROMISE KEPT XB/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 11 16.0 1-1/2
5 0 HAPPY HAPPY STAR B M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 10.0 1-1/2
6 0 GENEROUS HEART H-/XB/P2 H T Mo · C H Yip 6 11.0 4-1/4
7 0 GRAND HARBOUR B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang 1 6.4 5-1/2
8 0 SKY TREASURE H B Shinn · Y S Tsui 12 13.0 6-3/4
9 0 JOYFUL CONTENDER CP M Chadwick · R Gibson 7 21.0 7-1/2
10 0 TURF BRILLIANT T H So · W Y So 3 309.0 7-3/4
11 0 KELMIMI WINS A Sanna · C H Yip 8 107.0 8-3/4
12 0 EVER STRONG P H W Lai · K L Man 10 50.0 11

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. DOLLAR REWARD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with GUNNAR second and TOUCH OF LUCK third. The 3.4 favourite TOUCH OF LUCK finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DOLLAR REWARD—2. GUNNAR+0.5L3. TOUCH OF LUCK+0.5L4. PROMISE KEPT+1.5L5. HAPPY HAPPY STAR+1.5L6. GENEROUS HEART+4.25L7. GRAND HARBOUR+5.5L8. SKY TREASURE+6.75L9. JOYFUL CONTENDER+7.5L10. TURF BRILLIANT+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TOUCH OF LUCK (32.6%) finished 3rd — the winner DOLLAR REWARD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TOUCH OF LUCK 32.6% 3.07 3
2 0 DOLLAR REWARD 18.7% 5.34 1
3 0 GUNNAR 16.5% 6.05 2
4 0 GRAND HARBOUR 7.8% 12.90 7
5 0 GENEROUS HEART 4.5% 22.46 6
6 0 JOYFUL CONTENDER 3.6% 27.73 9
7 0 PROMISE KEPT 3.5% 28.67 4
8 0 SKY TREASURE 3.1% 32.46 8
9 0 HAPPY HAPPY STAR 3.1% 32.63 5
10 0 EVER STRONG 2.9% 34.34 12
11 0 KELMIMI WINS 2.0% 50.01 11
12 0 TURF BRILLIANT 1.8% 54.47 10
TOUCH OF LUCKDOLLAR REWARD — wonGUNNARGRAND HARBOURGENEROUS HEARTJOYFUL CONTENDERPROMISE KEPTSKY TREASUREHAPPY HAPPY STAREVER STRONGKELMIMI WINSTURF BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.