Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 8
Class 2
GOOD (AWT)
1200m
12 runners
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BIG TIME BABY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with ELUSIVE STATE second and SUNNY BOY third. The 2.2 favourite YEE CHEONG BABY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BIG TIME BABY 1.08.13 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | ELUSIVE STATE TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 7 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | SUNNY BOY CP C Schofield · J Moore | C Schofield | J Moore | 5 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/H/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 2 | 28.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | YEE CHEONG BABY Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 6 | 2.2 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | LOVING A BOOM B/XB K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 8 | 8.8 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SPEEDY KING K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 1 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 9 | 67.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG H R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 12 | 34.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | DRAGON GENERAL B/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 11 | 32.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | PICK NUMBER ONE B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 4 | 21.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | LIMITLESS H/P/XB U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 10 | 110.0 | 24-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick YEE CHEONG BABY (31.4%) finished 5th — the winner BIG TIME BABY was rated #7.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | YEE CHEONG BABY | 31.4% | 3.18 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 10.0% | 10.00 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | SUNNY BOY | 9.9% | 10.07 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | LOVING A BOOM | 9.7% | 10.27 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | SPEEDY KING | 8.8% | 11.36 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | ELUSIVE STATE | 8.6% | 11.68 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | BIG TIME BABY | 5.1% | 19.70 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | PICK NUMBER ONE | 4.8% | 20.66 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG | 3.7% | 27.19 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER | 3.2% | 31.36 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | DRAGON GENERAL | 2.5% | 39.77 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | LIMITLESS | 2.2% | 44.92 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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Race 9 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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