Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 10
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1400m
Course C
14 runners
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COOL TEAM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 2, with LOBO'S LEGEND second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite CRAIG'S STAR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | COOL TEAM Closed strongly CP 1.21.19 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 5.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 32.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 2 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | CRAIG'S STAR B1 K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 7 | 3.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | VIGOR FAME H/XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 12 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | I DO Closed strongly CP-/B1/H1/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 8 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 13 | 5.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | COBY BOY Closed strongly B B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 4 | 4.9 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | COMFORT LIFE XB/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 1 | 17.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | LUCKY TIME Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 14 | 20.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | HUANGSHAN Closed strongly B1 G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 9 | 90.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT Led early CP- H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 57.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 13 | EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 3 | 97.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | GOLD WIN B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 5 | 25.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick FOLLOW ME (18.4%) finished 7th — the winner COOL TEAM was rated #4.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FOLLOW ME | 18.4% | 5.42 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 | CRAIG'S STAR | 17.8% | 5.61 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | VIGOR FAME | 9.4% | 10.58 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | COOL TEAM | 8.9% | 11.19 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | I DO | 7.1% | 14.01 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | HUANGSHAN | 6.7% | 14.96 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | GOLD WIN | 6.6% | 15.16 | 14 |
| 8 | 10 | COMFORT LIFE | 5.5% | 18.10 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | LUCKY TIME | 5.1% | 19.59 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | COBY BOY | 4.0% | 25.09 | 8 |
| 11 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 2.9% | 34.47 | 2 |
| 12 | 5 | MAGNIFICENT | 2.8% | 35.15 | 12 |
| 13 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE | 2.6% | 37.86 | 3 |
| 14 | 13 | EVER LAUGH | 1.9% | 51.86 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.