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Sha Tin · 2019-09-08

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 COOL TEAM Closed strongly CP 1.21.19 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 10 5.8 2
2 0 LOBO'S LEGEND Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris 6 32.0 2
3 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly T H So · Y S Tsui 2 38.0 2
4 0 CRAIG'S STAR B1 K Teetan · C S Shum 7 3.6 2-1/4
5 0 VIGOR FAME H/XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 12 20.0 2-3/4
6 0 I DO Closed strongly CP-/B1/H1/TT K C Leung · W Y So 8 10.0 3
7 0 FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT1 J Moreira · J Size 13 5.7 3-3/4
8 0 COBY BOY Closed strongly B B Shinn · T P Yung 4 4.9 5-3/4
9 0 COMFORT LIFE XB/TT K H Chan · F C Lor 1 17.0 5-3/4
10 0 LUCKY TIME Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall 14 20.0 6-1/2
11 0 HUANGSHAN Closed strongly B1 G van Niekerk · J Moore 9 90.0 7
12 0 MAGNIFICENT Led early CP- H T Mo · L Ho 11 57.0 9-1/2
13 0 EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 3 97.0 10-1/2
14 0 GOLD WIN B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz 5 25.0 11-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COOL TEAM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 2, with LOBO'S LEGEND second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite CRAIG'S STAR finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COOL TEAM—2. LOBO'S LEGEND+2L3. GREAT TREASURE+2L4. CRAIG'S STAR+2.25L5. VIGOR FAME+2.75L6. I DO+3L7. FOLLOW ME+3.75L8. COBY BOY+5.75L9. COMFORT LIFE+5.75L10. LUCKY TIME+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FOLLOW ME (18.4%) finished 7th — the winner COOL TEAM was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FOLLOW ME 18.4% 5.42 7
2 0 CRAIG'S STAR 17.8% 5.61 4
3 0 VIGOR FAME 9.4% 10.58 5
4 0 COOL TEAM 8.9% 11.19 1
5 0 I DO 7.1% 14.01 6
6 0 HUANGSHAN 6.7% 14.96 11
7 0 GOLD WIN 6.6% 15.16 14
8 0 COMFORT LIFE 5.5% 18.10 9
9 0 LUCKY TIME 5.1% 19.59 10
10 0 COBY BOY 4.0% 25.09 8
11 0 LOBO'S LEGEND 2.9% 34.47 2
12 0 MAGNIFICENT 2.8% 35.15 12
13 0 GREAT TREASURE 2.6% 37.86 3
14 0 EVER LAUGH 1.9% 51.86 13
FOLLOW MECRAIG'S STARVIGOR FAMECOOL TEAM — wonI DOHUANGSHANGOLD WINCOMFORT LIFELUCKY TIMECOBY BOYLOBO'S LEGENDMAGNIFICENTGREAT TREASUREEVER LAUGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.