Sha Tin · 2019-09-08
Race 7
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1200m
Course C
12 runners
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INVINCIBLE MISSILE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by N, with TRIUMPHANT ARCH second and CRUISING third. The 1.9 favourite VICTORIAM finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE B/TT 1.08.60 Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 3.2 | N |
| 2 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT ARCH B K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 8 | 45.0 | N |
| 3 | 2 | CRUISING M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 31.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | ENDEARING PC-/B2/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 9 | 49.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | FANTASTIC FABIO J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI U Rispoli · F C Lor | U Rispoli | F C Lor | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | VICTORIAM A Domeyer · K W Lui | A Domeyer | K W Lui | 10 | 1.9 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | BETHANY TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 3 | 264.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING H1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 79.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | KING OF HEARTS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 9.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | TOP MILITARY B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 12 | 52.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | SUPREME PATROL B1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 124.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick VICTORIAM (32.5%) finished 7th — the winner INVINCIBLE MISSILE was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | VICTORIAM | 32.5% | 3.07 | 7 |
| 2 | 8 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 26.7% | 3.75 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 14.1% | 7.12 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 7.1% | 14.08 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | KING OF HEARTS | 6.5% | 15.35 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 4.2% | 23.69 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | ENDEARING | 2.8% | 36.31 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | CRUISING | 2.2% | 45.50 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | TOP MILITARY | 1.6% | 62.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT ARCH | 1.0% | 97.76 | 2 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPREME PATROL | 0.7% | 134.07 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | BETHANY | 0.6% | 176.46 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 6
Race 8 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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