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Sha Tin · 2020-03-14

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-14 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GALA NIGHT, ridden by K C Leung and trained by J Moore, won by N, with FOODIE PRINCESS second and CROWN AVENUE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite FOODIE PRINCESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GALA NIGHT Wire to wire CP 1.47.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · J Moore 9 10.0 N
2 2 FOODIE PRINCESS Closed strongly TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 2.4 N
3 4 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V Z Purton · C H Yip 1 5.0 2-1/4
4 8 WILLIE WAY Closed strongly B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 6 54.0 4-1/4
5 7 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 3.5 6-1/4
6 13 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · C W Chang 8 24.0 6-3/4
7 5 EXALTATION Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 4 144.0 6-3/4
8 14 HAY RUN Closed strongly H T Mo · L Ho 13 66.0 7-1/4
9 3 KING'S MAN V M Chadwick · P F Yiu 14 68.0 8
10 12 GOOD FIT Closed strongly PC/TT H N Wong · F C Lor 5 67.0 9-1/4
11 9 SHADOW BREAKER M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 118.0 9-3/4
12 6 STARLIT KNIGHT C Wong · Y S Tsui 11 69.0 11-1/2
13 1 GENERAL DINO B V Borges · D E Ferraris 3 25.0 14
14 11 MISTER MONTE B M F Poon · C W Chang 12 22.0 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALA NIGHT2. FOODIE PRINCESS+0.05L3. CROWN AVENUE+2.25L4. WILLIE WAY+4.25L5. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+6.25L6. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+6.75L7. EXALTATION+6.75L8. HAY RUN+7.25L9. KING'S MAN+8L10. GOOD FIT+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FOODIE PRINCESS (29.0%) finished 2nd — the winner GALA NIGHT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FOODIE PRINCESS 29.0% 3.44 2
2 7 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 19.4% 5.16 5
3 4 CROWN AVENUE 15.9% 6.29 3
4 10 GALA NIGHT 9.4% 10.66 1
5 13 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 4.4% 22.77 6
6 6 STARLIT KNIGHT 3.7% 27.36 12
7 14 HAY RUN 3.6% 28.03 8
8 9 SHADOW BREAKER 3.3% 30.49 11
9 11 MISTER MONTE 2.9% 34.65 14
10 5 EXALTATION 2.2% 45.51 7
11 3 KING'S MAN 2.1% 47.17 9
12 12 GOOD FIT 2.0% 50.49 10
13 1 GENERAL DINO 1.5% 65.50 13
14 8 WILLIE WAY 0.7% 142.49 4
FOODIE PRINCESSTHIS ONE'S FOR YOUCROWN AVENUEGALA NIGHT — wonENJOYABLE SUCCESSSTARLIT KNIGHTHAY RUNSHADOW BREAKERMISTER MONTEEXALTATIONKING'S MANGOOD FITGENERAL DINOWILLIE WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 106

PLACE

2 14

4 15.5

10 23.5

QUINELLA

2,10 140.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 29.5

2,10 56.5

4,10 82

TIERCE

10,2,4 2,087

TRIO

2,4,10 221

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 1,559

QUARTET

10,2,4,8 44,322

3 PICK 1

A2 17.5

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 10.5

4/10 170.5