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Sha Tin · 2020-03-14

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SMOOTHIES Wire to wire TT 1.21.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C S Shum 4 14.0 SH
2 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER Closed strongly H-/B C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 6.1 SH
3 0 EVERYONE'S JOY Closed strongly CP/XB/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 7 4.1 1/2
4 0 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V Z Purton · K L Man 14 12.0 1/2
5 0 TOYCOON Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu 5 44.0 3/4
6 0 UNICORNBABY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 1 9.3 1
7 0 TRIUMPHANT HORSE Closed strongly B/TT1 H N Wong · K H Ting 13 39.0 1-3/4
8 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 11 6.4 2
9 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · W Y So 12 29.0 2
10 0 COOL TEAM Closed strongly B C Wong · P O'Sullivan 8 6.8 2-1/2
11 0 GOOD FOR YOU Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 112.0 2-3/4
12 0 FOLLOW ME TT K H Chan · J Size 9 13.0 4-3/4
13 0 HOME MADE B V Borges · Y S Tsui 3 208.0 8
14 0 SILVER FIG B C Schofield · A T Millard 6 13.0 8-1/4
— 0 HARMONY SPIRIT G van Niekerk · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SMOOTHIES, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with HIGH RISE SOLDIER second and EVERYONE'S JOY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite EVERYONE'S JOY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMOOTHIES—2. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+0.1L3. EVERYONE'S JOY+0.5L4. ULTIMATE GLORY+0.5L5. TOYCOON+0.75L6. UNICORNBABY+1L7. TRIUMPHANT HORSE+1.75L8. BEAUTY SPIRIT+2L9. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+2L10. COOL TEAM+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S JOY (28.0%) finished 3rd — the winner SMOOTHIES was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EVERYONE'S JOY 28.0% 3.57 3
2 0 COOL TEAM 12.0% 8.32 10
3 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 9.5% 10.58 4
4 0 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 7.8% 12.84 2
5 0 SILVER FIG 7.4% 13.45 14
6 0 UNICORNBABY 5.7% 17.44 6
7 0 FOLLOW ME 5.4% 18.45 12
8 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 4.8% 20.67 9
9 0 GOOD FOR YOU 4.5% 22.19 11
10 0 TRIUMPHANT HORSE 4.0% 24.96 7
11 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 3.3% 30.05 8
12 0 TOYCOON 3.2% 31.09 5
13 0 SMOOTHIES 2.8% 35.16 1
14 0 HOME MADE 1.4% 69.85 13
EVERYONE'S JOYCOOL TEAMULTIMATE GLORYHIGH RISE SOLDIERSILVER FIGUNICORNBABYFOLLOW MEZHAN JIANG ROCKSGOOD FOR YOUTRIUMPHANT HORSEBEAUTY SPIRITTOYCOONSMOOTHIES — wonHOME MADE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 145.5

PLACE

7 48

9 19.5

10 18

QUINELLA

7,9 323.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 91

7,10 137.5

9,10 38

TIERCE

7,9,10 2,643

TRIO

7,9,10 279

FIRST 4

7,8,9,10 534

QUARTET

7,9,10,8 15,097

3 PICK 1

A2 26.5

A3 —

A1 —

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

10/7 1,171.5

10/9 105.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,6,8/2,4,10/7,9,10 88,857

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,8/2,4,10/Any Combination 421