Sha Tin · 2020-09-13

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HANDSOME REBEL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-3/4, with BLOTTING PAPER second and WAR LORD third. The 3.3 favourite SUPER KIN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.03

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	HANDSOME REBEL B/TT 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	8	127 lb	3.6	1-3/4
2	2	BLOTTING PAPER H-/B A Hamelin · R Gibson	A Hamelin	R Gibson	7	129 lb	17.0	1-3/4
3	6	WAR LORD E-/P C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	1	124 lb	23.0	2-1/2
4	7	SUPER KIN TT Z Purton · C Fownes	Z Purton	C Fownes	3	122 lb	3.3	3-1/4
5	3	DOLLAR REWARD P/TT J Moreira · C S Shum	J Moreira	C S Shum	4	128 lb	8.1	4-1/2
6	4	GOLD COMET A Badel · A T Millard	A Badel	A T Millard	5	127 lb	32.0	6-3/4
7	9	SUPER WINNER B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	9	114 lb	6.5	7
8	8	VIVA COUNCIL B-/V2 H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	2	116 lb	5.8	10-1/2
9	1	GOLDIE FLANKER N Callan · K L Man	N Callan	K L Man	6	133 lb	18.0	16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SUPER KIN (42.6%) finished 4th — the winner HANDSOME REBEL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	SUPER KIN	42.6%	2.35	4	3.3
2	6	WAR LORD	10.5%	9.54	3	23.0
3	5	HANDSOME REBEL	9.3%	10.77	1	3.6
4	9	SUPER WINNER	8.6%	11.67	7	6.5
5	1	GOLDIE FLANKER	7.1%	13.99	9	18.0
6	3	DOLLAR REWARD	6.5%	15.28	5	8.1
7	8	VIVA COUNCIL	6.0%	16.62	8	5.8
8	4	GOLD COMET	5.1%	19.58	6	32.0
9	2	BLOTTING PAPER	4.3%	23.28	2	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 36

PLACE

2 45

5 14.5

6 58.5

QUINELLA

2,5 302.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 90

2,6 399.5

5,6 113.5

FORECAST

5,2 582

TIERCE

5,2,6 5,923

TRIO

2,5,6 1,188

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 922

QUARTET

5,2,6,7 25,050

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 18

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99