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Sha Tin · 2020-09-13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CIRCUIT GLORY Closed strongly H/TT 1.21.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 6.7 1
2 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B Z Purton · K L Man 5 3.4 1
3 0 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 19.0 2-3/4
4 0 CRAIG'S STAR B M Chadwick · C S Shum 11 8.7 3
5 0 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Hall 2 68.0 5-1/2
6 0 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly M F Poon · Y S Tsui 7 25.0 5-3/4
7 0 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · F C Lor 10 17.0 7
7 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly V Borges · D E Ferraris 4 13.0 7
9 0 WISDOM PATCH Closed strongly H/XB1/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 13 77.0 8-1/4
10 0 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E C Wong · J Size 9 68.0 8-1/2
11 0 WINNING FOR ALL C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 19.0 9-3/4
12 0 SO WE JOY CP/TT- J Moreira · D A Hayes 8 2.9 10
13 0 BLAZING BEAT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 229.0 15-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT GLORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with STAR OF YUEN LONG second and ENTRUSTED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SO WE JOY finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT GLORY—2. STAR OF YUEN LONG+1L3. ENTRUSTED+2.75L4. CRAIG'S STAR+3L5. FLYING MIGHTY+5.5L6. GLORIOUS LOVER+5.75L7. JOYFUL HEART+7L7. SUPERB DADDY+7L9. WISDOM PATCH+8.25L10. CHAIRMAN LO+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO WE JOY (33.8%) finished 12th — the winner CIRCUIT GLORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SO WE JOY 33.8% 2.96 12
2 0 STAR OF YUEN LONG 17.3% 5.80 2
3 0 CIRCUIT GLORY 10.6% 9.40 1
4 0 CRAIG'S STAR 6.8% 14.78 4
5 0 ENTRUSTED 5.3% 19.04 3
6 0 CHAIRMAN LO 4.8% 20.87 10
7 0 JOYFUL HEART 4.1% 24.55 7
8 0 WINNING FOR ALL 3.8% 26.65 11
9 0 WISDOM PATCH 3.2% 31.23 9
10 0 SUPERB DADDY 3.1% 31.95 7
11 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.8% 35.58 6
12 0 FLYING MIGHTY 2.4% 41.72 5
13 0 BLAZING BEAT 2.1% 47.56 13
SO WE JOYSTAR OF YUEN LONGCIRCUIT GLORY — wonCRAIG'S STARENTRUSTEDCHAIRMAN LOJOYFUL HEARTWINNING FOR ALLWISDOM PATCHSUPERB DADDYGLORIOUS LOVERFLYING MIGHTYBLAZING BEAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 67.5

PLACE

1 21

2 15

7 45.5

QUINELLA

1,2 125

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 45.5

1,7 170

2,7 116.5

FORECAST

1,2 284

TIERCE

1,2,7 3,294

TRIO

1,2,7 556

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 1,148

QUARTET

1,2,7,6 24,388

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 31.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,14/1,2,7 209,283

9TH DOUBLE

4/1 267.5

4/2 19.5

SIX UP

2,8/9,11/1,6/4,6/4,14/1,2 13,924

8/9/1/6/4/1 89,053

3 [K Teetan] —

TREBLE

6/4/1 680

6/4/2 47