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Sha Tin · 2020-09-13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT GLORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with STAR OF YUEN LONG second and ENTRUSTED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SO WE JOY finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.21.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CIRCUIT GLORY Closed strongly H/TT 1.21.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 6.7 1
2 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B Z Purton · K L Man 5 3.4 1
3 7 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 19.0 2-3/4
4 6 CRAIG'S STAR B M Chadwick · C S Shum 11 8.7 3
5 5 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Hall 2 68.0 5-1/2
6 9 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly M F Poon · Y S Tsui 7 25.0 5-3/4
7 10 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · F C Lor 10 17.0 7
7 11 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly V Borges · D E Ferraris 4 13.0 7
9 8 WISDOM PATCH Closed strongly H/XB1/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 13 77.0 8-1/4
10 12 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly E C Wong · J Size 9 68.0 8-1/2
11 3 WINNING FOR ALL C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 19.0 9-3/4
12 13 SO WE JOY CP/TT- J Moreira · D A Hayes 8 2.9 10
13 4 BLAZING BEAT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 229.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT GLORY2. STAR OF YUEN LONG+1L3. ENTRUSTED+2.75L4. CRAIG'S STAR+3L5. FLYING MIGHTY+5.5L6. GLORIOUS LOVER+5.75L7. JOYFUL HEART+7L7. SUPERB DADDY+7L9. WISDOM PATCH+8.25L10. CHAIRMAN LO+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO WE JOY (33.8%) finished 12th — the winner CIRCUIT GLORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 SO WE JOY 33.8% 2.96 12
2 2 STAR OF YUEN LONG 17.3% 5.80 2
3 1 CIRCUIT GLORY 10.6% 9.40 1
4 6 CRAIG'S STAR 6.8% 14.78 4
5 7 ENTRUSTED 5.3% 19.04 3
6 12 CHAIRMAN LO 4.8% 20.87 10
7 10 JOYFUL HEART 4.1% 24.55 7
8 3 WINNING FOR ALL 3.8% 26.65 11
9 8 WISDOM PATCH 3.2% 31.23 9
10 11 SUPERB DADDY 3.1% 31.95 7
11 9 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.8% 35.58 6
12 5 FLYING MIGHTY 2.4% 41.72 5
13 4 BLAZING BEAT 2.1% 47.56 13
SO WE JOYSTAR OF YUEN LONGCIRCUIT GLORY — wonCRAIG'S STARENTRUSTEDCHAIRMAN LOJOYFUL HEARTWINNING FOR ALLWISDOM PATCHSUPERB DADDYGLORIOUS LOVERFLYING MIGHTYBLAZING BEAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 67.5

PLACE

1 21

2 15

7 45.5

QUINELLA

1,2 125

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 45.5

1,7 170

2,7 116.5

FORECAST

1,2 284

TIERCE

1,2,7 3,294

TRIO

1,2,7 556

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 1,148

QUARTET

1,2,7,6 24,388

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 31.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,14/1,2,7 209,283

9TH DOUBLE

4/1 267.5

4/2 19.5

SIX UP

2,8/9,11/1,6/4,6/4,14/1,2 13,924

8/9/1/6/4/1 89,053

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

6/4/1 680

6/4/2 47