Sha Tin · 2020-09-13
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SKY FIELD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with LOCKHEED second and CRUISING third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SKY FIELD TT 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 1.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | LOCKHEED B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | CRUISING C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 2 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | TRUE LEGEND CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 8 | 86.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | TEMPEST EXPRESS E1 C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 10 | 75.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | MOERAKI B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 9 | 22.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | SMART LEADER B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 4 | 30.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | INNER FLAME XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.5 | 6 |
| — | 8 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SKY FIELD | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | TRUE LEGEND | 19.7% | 5.07 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | INNER FLAME | 10.2% | 9.76 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | LOCKHEED | 5.6% | 17.94 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 5.0% | 19.83 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | CRUISING | 3.8% | 26.10 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | TEMPEST EXPRESS | 3.6% | 27.45 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 2.7% | 36.99 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN | 2.6% | 39.07 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | MOERAKI | 2.3% | 44.32 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 14
PLACE
4 41.5
5 24
6 10.5
QUINELLA
4,6 124
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 199.5
4,6 54.5
5,6 32.5
FORECAST
6,4 195
TIERCE
6,4,5 1,002
TRIO
4,5,6 270
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 888
QUARTET
6,4,5,3 8,478
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 14
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
1/4 125.5
1/6 39