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Sha Tin · 2020-09-13

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SKY FIELD TT 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 7 1.4 1-1/2
2 0 LOCKHEED B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 22.0 1-1/2
3 0 CRUISING C L Chau · T P Yung 5 12.0 1-3/4
4 0 SUPER DOBBIN A Hamelin · A T Millard 2 20.0 2-1/4
5 0 TRUE LEGEND CP K Teetan · F C Lor 3 13.0 3-1/4
6 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT M L Yeung · K L Man 8 86.0 3-1/2
7 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS E1 C Y Ho · J Size 10 75.0 4-1/4
8 0 MOERAKI B C Schofield · K H Ting 9 22.0 5-1/2
9 0 SMART LEADER B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 4 30.0 5-1/2
10 0 INNER FLAME XB A Badel · D J Whyte 1 6.5 6
— 0 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS K H Chan · C H Yip — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SKY FIELD, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with LOCKHEED second and CRUISING third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY FIELD—2. LOCKHEED+1.5L3. CRUISING+1.75L4. SUPER DOBBIN+2.25L5. TRUE LEGEND+3.25L6. COMPASSION SPIRIT+3.5L7. TEMPEST EXPRESS+4.25L8. MOERAKI+5.5L9. SMART LEADER+5.5L10. INNER FLAME+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY FIELD (44.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SKY FIELD 44.4% 2.25 1
2 0 TRUE LEGEND 19.7% 5.07 5
3 0 INNER FLAME 10.2% 9.76 10
4 0 LOCKHEED 5.6% 17.94 2
5 0 SMART LEADER 5.0% 19.83 9
6 0 CRUISING 3.8% 26.10 3
7 0 TEMPEST EXPRESS 3.6% 27.45 7
8 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 2.7% 36.99 6
9 0 SUPER DOBBIN 2.6% 39.07 4
10 0 MOERAKI 2.3% 44.32 8
SKY FIELD — wonTRUE LEGENDINNER FLAMELOCKHEEDSMART LEADERCRUISINGTEMPEST EXPRESSCOMPASSION SPIRITSUPER DOBBINMOERAKI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 14

PLACE

4 41.5

5 24

6 10.5

QUINELLA

4,6 124

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 199.5

4,6 54.5

5,6 32.5

FORECAST

6,4 195

TIERCE

6,4,5 1,002

TRIO

4,5,6 270

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 888

QUARTET

6,4,5,3 8,478

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14

A3 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

1/4 125.5

1/6 39