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Sha Tin · 2020-09-13

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B 1.22.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 3 6.0 1/2
2 0 MASTER GALAXY Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 38.0 1/2
3 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · D A Hayes 12 13.0 3/4
4 0 SHINEALOT Closed strongly B- K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 2 6.0 1
5 0 WONDER WIN Closed strongly P- M L Yeung · L Ho 13 155.0 1-3/4
6 0 ADONIS Closed strongly CP/H C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 3.9 2
7 0 EVER STRONG P2 M Chadwick · K L Man 4 101.0 3-1/4
8 0 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly SR N Callan · D E Ferraris 11 24.0 4
9 0 TARGET FINDER Led early H/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 5 171.0 5-1/4
10 0 GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly CP/XB C Y Ho · K H Ting 10 18.0 5-3/4
11 0 SOCCER MASTER B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 8 4.3 6-1/4
12 0 HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT C Schofield · C H Yip 9 79.0 6-1/2
13 0 GALAXY RACER V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 9.3 8
14 0 DRAGON BOLT XB-/H Z Purton · C W Chang 14 18.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-13 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with MASTER GALAXY second and LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ADONIS finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE—2. MASTER GALAXY+0.5L3. LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT+0.75L4. SHINEALOT+1L5. WONDER WIN+1.75L6. ADONIS+2L7. EVER STRONG+3.25L8. BLAZING PARTNERS+4L9. TARGET FINDER+5.25L10. GOLDEN GENERAL+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALAXY RACER (20.0%) finished 13th — the winner WINWIN THIRTYTHREE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALAXY RACER 20.0% 4.99 13
2 0 ADONIS 15.5% 6.47 6
3 0 SHINEALOT 12.9% 7.75 4
4 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 12.8% 7.83 1
5 0 SOCCER MASTER 9.8% 10.20 11
6 0 GOLDEN GENERAL 6.2% 16.04 10
7 0 DRAGON BOLT 5.6% 17.89 14
8 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 4.4% 22.75 3
9 0 EVER STRONG 3.9% 25.92 7
10 0 WONDER WIN 2.3% 42.65 5
11 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 2.3% 44.20 8
12 0 HAPPY HOUR 1.7% 57.17 12
13 0 MASTER GALAXY 1.3% 75.69 2
14 0 TARGET FINDER 1.3% 78.40 9
GALAXY RACERADONISSHINEALOTWINWIN THIRTYTHREE — wonSOCCER MASTERGOLDEN GENERALDRAGON BOLTLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTEVER STRONGWONDER WINBLAZING PARTNERSHAPPY HOURMASTER GALAXYTARGET FINDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 60

PLACE

1 42

3 20

10 94.5

QUINELLA

3,10 1,542.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 160

1,10 652.5

3,10 394

FORECAST

3,10 2,436

TIERCE

3,10,1 39,668

TRIO

1,3,10 5,799

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 10,504

QUARTET

3,10,1,6 333,885

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/1,3,10 131,554

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A2 —

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE

1/3 302

1/10 439